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Suppose you flip two coins 100 times. The results are 20 HH , 27 HT , 30 TH , and 23 TT . Are the coins fair? Test at a 5% significance level.

This problem can be set up as a goodness-of-fit problem. The sample space for flipping two fair coins is { HH , HT , TH , TT }. Out of 100 flips, you would expect 25 HH , 25 HT , 25 TH , and 25 TT . This is the expected distribution. The question, "Are the coins fair?" is the same as saying, "Does the distribution of the coins (20 HH , 27 HT , 30 TH , 23 TT ) fit the expected distribution?"

Random Variable: Let X = the number of heads in one flip of the two coins. X takes on the values 0, 1, 2. (There are 0, 1, or 2 heads in the flip of two coins.) Therefore, the number of cells is three . Since X = the number of heads, the observed frequencies are 20 (for two heads), 57 (for one head), and 23 (for zero heads or both tails). The expected frequencies are 25 (for two heads), 50 (for one head), and 25 (for zero heads or both tails). This test is right-tailed.

H 0 : The coins are fair.

H a : The coins are not fair.

Distribution for the test: χ 2 2 where df = 3 – 1 = 2.

Calculate the test statistic: χ 2 = 2.14

Graph:

This is a nonsymmetrical chi-square curve with values of 0 and 2.14 labeled on the horizontal axis. A vertical upward line extends from 2.14 to the curve and the region to the right of this line is shaded. The shaded area is equal to the p-value.

The graph of the Chi-square shows the distribution and marks the critical value with two degrees of freedom at 95% level of confidence, α = 0.05, 5.991. The graph also marks the calculated χ 2 test statistic of 2.14. Comparing the test statistic with the critical value, as we have done with all other hypothesis tests, we reach the conclusion.

Conclusion: There is insufficient evidence to conclude that the coins are not fair.

References

Data from the U.S. Census Bureau

Data from the College Board. Available online at http://www.collegeboard.com.

Data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports.

Ma, Y., E.R. Bertone, E.J. Stanek III, G.W. Reed, J.R. Hebert, N.L. Cohen, P.A. Merriam, I.S. Ockene, “Association between Eating Patterns and Obesity in a Free-living US Adult Population.” American Journal of Epidemiology volume 158, no. 1, pages 85-92.

Ogden, Cynthia L., Margaret D. Carroll, Brian K. Kit, Katherine M. Flegal, “Prevalence of Obesity in the United States, 2009–2010.” NCHS Data Brief no. 82, January 2012. Available online at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db82.pdf (accessed May 24, 2013).

Stevens, Barbara J., “Multi-family and Commercial Solid Waste and Recycling Survey.” Arlington Count, VA. Available online at http://www.arlingtonva.us/departments/EnvironmentalServices/SW/file84429.pdf (accessed May 24,2013).

Chapter review

To assess whether a data set fits a specific distribution, you can apply the goodness-of-fit hypothesis test that uses the chi-square distribution. The null hypothesis for this test states that the data come from the assumed distribution. The test compares observed values against the values you would expect to have if your data followed the assumed distribution. The test is almost always right-tailed. Each observation or cell category must have an expected value of at least five.

Formula review

k ( O E ) 2 E goodness-of-fit test statistic where:
O : observed values
E : expected values

k : number of different data cells or categories

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Source:  OpenStax, Introductory statistics. OpenStax CNX. Aug 09, 2016 Download for free at http://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11776/1.26
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