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Probability topics

Class time:

Names:

Student learning outcomes

  • The student will use theoretical and empirical methods to estimate probabilities.
  • The student will appraise the differences between the two estimates.
  • The student will demonstrate an understanding of long-term relative frequencies.

Do the experiment

Count out 40 mixed-color M&Ms® which is approximately one small bag’s worth. Record the number of each color in [link] . Use the information from this table to complete [link] . Next, put the M&Ms in a cup. The experiment is to pick two M&Ms, one at a time. Do not look at them as you pick them. The first time through, replace the first M&M before picking the second one. Record the results in the “With Replacement” column of [link] . Do this 24 times. The second time through, after picking the first M&M, do not replace it before picking the second one. Then, pick the second one. Record the results in the “Without Replacement” column section of [link] . After you record the pick, put both M&Ms back. Do this a total of 24 times, also. Use the data from [link] to calculate the empirical probability questions. Leave your answers in unreduced fractional form. Do not multiply out any fractions.

Population
Color Quantity
Yellow ( Y )
Green ( G )
Blue ( BL )
Brown ( B )
Orange ( O )
Red ( R )
Theoretical probabilities
With Replacement Without Replacement
P (2 reds)
P ( R 1 B 2 OR B 1 R 2 )
P ( R 1 AND G 2 )
P ( G 2 | R 1 )
P (no yellows)
P (doubles)
P (no doubles)

Note

G 2 = green on second pick; R 1 = red on first pick; B 1 = brown on first pick; B 2 = brown on second pick; doubles = both picks are the same colour.

Empirical results
With Replacement Without Replacement
( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ )
( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ )
( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ )
( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ )
( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ )
( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ )
( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ )
( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ )
( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ )
( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ )
( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ )
( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ ) ( __ , __ )
Empirical probabilities
With Replacement Without Replacement
P (2 reds)
P ( R 1 B 2 OR B 1 R 2 )
P ( R 1 AND G 2 )
P ( G 2 | R 1 )
P (no yellows)
P (doubles)
P (no doubles)

Discussion questions

  1. Why are the “With Replacement” and “Without Replacement” probabilities different?
  2. Convert P (no yellows) to decimal format for both Theoretical “With Replacement” and for Empirical “With Replacement”. Round to four decimal places.
    1. Theoretical “With Replacement”: P (no yellows) = _______
    2. Empirical “With Replacement”: P (no yellows) = _______
    3. Are the decimal values “close”? Did you expect them to be closer together or farther apart? Why?
  3. If you increased the number of times you picked two M&Ms to 240 times, why would empirical probability values change?
  4. Would this change (see part 3) cause the empirical probabilities and theoretical probabilities to be closer together or farther apart? How do you know?
  5. Explain the differences in what P ( G 1 AND R 2 ) and P ( R 1 | G 2 ) represent. Hint: Think about the sample space for each probability.

Questions & Answers

how does Neisseria cause meningitis
Nyibol Reply
what is microbiologist
Muhammad Reply
what is errata
Muhammad
is the branch of biology that deals with the study of microorganisms.
Ntefuni Reply
What is microbiology
Mercy Reply
studies of microbes
Louisiaste
when we takee the specimen which lumbar,spin,
Ziyad Reply
How bacteria create energy to survive?
Muhamad Reply
Bacteria doesn't produce energy they are dependent upon their substrate in case of lack of nutrients they are able to make spores which helps them to sustain in harsh environments
_Adnan
But not all bacteria make spores, l mean Eukaryotic cells have Mitochondria which acts as powerhouse for them, since bacteria don't have it, what is the substitution for it?
Muhamad
they make spores
Louisiaste
what is sporadic nd endemic, epidemic
Aminu Reply
the significance of food webs for disease transmission
Abreham
food webs brings about an infection as an individual depends on number of diseased foods or carriers dully.
Mark
explain assimilatory nitrate reduction
Esinniobiwa Reply
Assimilatory nitrate reduction is a process that occurs in some microorganisms, such as bacteria and archaea, in which nitrate (NO3-) is reduced to nitrite (NO2-), and then further reduced to ammonia (NH3).
Elkana
This process is called assimilatory nitrate reduction because the nitrogen that is produced is incorporated in the cells of microorganisms where it can be used in the synthesis of amino acids and other nitrogen products
Elkana
Examples of thermophilic organisms
Shu Reply
Give Examples of thermophilic organisms
Shu
advantages of normal Flora to the host
Micheal Reply
Prevent foreign microbes to the host
Abubakar
they provide healthier benefits to their hosts
ayesha
They are friends to host only when Host immune system is strong and become enemies when the host immune system is weakened . very bad relationship!
Mark
what is cell
faisal Reply
cell is the smallest unit of life
Fauziya
cell is the smallest unit of life
Akanni
ok
Innocent
cell is the structural and functional unit of life
Hasan
is the fundamental units of Life
Musa
what are emergency diseases
Micheal Reply
There are nothing like emergency disease but there are some common medical emergency which can occur simultaneously like Bleeding,heart attack,Breathing difficulties,severe pain heart stock.Hope you will get my point .Have a nice day ❣️
_Adnan
define infection ,prevention and control
Innocent
I think infection prevention and control is the avoidance of all things we do that gives out break of infections and promotion of health practices that promote life
Lubega
Heyy Lubega hussein where are u from?
_Adnan
en français
Adama
which site have a normal flora
ESTHER Reply
Many sites of the body have it Skin Nasal cavity Oral cavity Gastro intestinal tract
Safaa
skin
Asiina
skin,Oral,Nasal,GIt
Sadik
How can Commensal can Bacteria change into pathogen?
Sadik
How can Commensal Bacteria change into pathogen?
Sadik
all
Tesfaye
by fussion
Asiina
what are the advantages of normal Flora to the host
Micheal
what are the ways of control and prevention of nosocomial infection in the hospital
Micheal
what is inflammation
Shelly Reply
part of a tissue or an organ being wounded or bruised.
Wilfred
what term is used to name and classify microorganisms?
Micheal Reply
Binomial nomenclature
adeolu
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Source:  OpenStax, Introductory statistics. OpenStax CNX. May 06, 2016 Download for free at http://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11562/1.18
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