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graph of Demand for Nonfuel Minerals Materials
Demand for Nonfuel Minerals Materials US mineral consumption from 1900 - 2006, excluding energy-related minerals Source: U.S. Geological Survey

Uses, world production in 2010, and estimated projected lifetime of reserves (ore that is profitable to mine under current conditions) for selected minerals Source: US Geological Survey Mineral Commodity Summaries, 2011
Strategic minerals
Mineral Uses 2010 Production (thousands of metric tons) 2010 Reserves (thousands of metric tons) Estimated Life of Reserves (years)
Rare earths catalysts, alloys, electronics, phosphors, magnets 130 110,000 846
Lithium ceramics, glass, lithium-ion batteries in electronics and electric cars 25.3 13,000 514
Phosphate rock fertilizer, animal feed supplement 176,000 65,000,000 369
Platinum Group catalysts, electronics, glass, jewelry 0.4 66 178
Aluminum ore Al cans, airplanes, building, electrical 211,000 28,000,000 133
Titanium minerals white pigment, metal in airplanes and human joint replacements 6,300 690,000 110
Cobalt airplane engines, metals, chemicals 88 7,300 83
Iron ore main ingredient in steel 2,400,000 180,000,000 75
Nickel important alloy in steel, electroplating 1,550 76,000 49
Manganese important alloy in steel 13,000 630,000 48
Copper electrical wire, electronics, pipes, ingredient in brass 16,200 630,000 39
Silver industry, coins, jewelry, photography 22.2 510 23
Zinc galvanized steel, alloys, brass 12,000 250,000 21
Lead batteries 4,100 80,000 20
Tin electrical, cans, construction, 261 5,200 20
Gold jewelry, arts, electronics, dental 2.5 51 20

A more complex analysis of future depletions of our mineral supplies predicts that 20 out of 23 minerals studied will likely experience a permanent shortfall in global supply by 2030 where global production is less than global demand ( Clugston, 2010 ). Specifically this study concludes the following: for cadmium, gold, mercury, tellurium, and tungsten—they have already passed their global production peak, their future production only will decline, and it is nearly certain that there will be a permanent global supply shortfall by 2030; for cobalt, lead, molybdenum, platinum group metals, phosphate rock, silver, titanium, and zinc—they are likely at or near their global production peak and there is a very high probability that there will be a permanent global supply shortfall by 2030; for chromium, copper, indium, iron ore, lithium, magnesium compounds, nickel, and phosphate rock—they are expected to reach their global production peak between 2010 and 2030 and there is a high probability that there will be a permanent global supply shortfall by 2030; and for bauxite, rare earth minerals, and tin—they are not expected to reach their global production peak before 2030 and there is a low probability that there will be a permanent global supply shortfall by 2030. It is important to note that these kinds of predictions of future mineral shortages are difficult and controversial. Other scientists disagree with Clugston’s predictions of mineral shortages in the near future. Predictions similar to Clugston were made in the 1970s and they were wrong. It is difficult to know exactly the future demand for minerals and the size of future mineral reserves. The remaining life for specific minerals will decrease if future demand increases. On the other hand, mineral reserves can increase if new mineral deposits are found (increasing the known amount of ore) or if currently unprofitable mineral deposits become profitable ones due to either a mineral price increase or technological improvements that make mining or processing cheaper. Mineral resources , a much larger category than mineral reserves, are the total amount of a mineral that is not necessarily profitable to mine today but that has some sort of economic potential.

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Source:  OpenStax, Sustainability: a comprehensive foundation. OpenStax CNX. Nov 11, 2013 Download for free at http://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11325/1.43
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