# 4.2 Binomial distribution  (Page 2/28)

 Page 2 / 28

There are three characteristics of a binomial experiment.

1. There are a fixed number of trials. Think of trials as repetitions of an experiment. The letter n denotes the number of trials.
2. The random variable, number of successes, is discrete.
3. There are only two possible outcomes, called "success" and "failure," for each trial. The letter p denotes the probability of a success on one trial, and q denotes the probability of a failure on one trial. p + q = 1.
4. The n trials are independent and are repeated using identical conditions. Think of this as drawing WITH replacement. Because the n trials are independent, the outcome of one trial does not help in predicting the outcome of another trial. Another way of saying this is that for each individual trial, the probability, p , of a success and probability, q , of a failure remain the same. For example, randomly guessing at a true-false statistics question has only two outcomes. If a success is guessing correctly, then a failure is guessing incorrectly. Suppose Joe always guesses correctly on any statistics true-false question with probability p = 0.6. Then, q = 0.4. This means that for every true-false statistics question Joe answers, his probability of success ( p = 0.6) and his probability of failure ( q = 0.4) remain the same.

The outcomes of a binomial experiment fit a binomial probability distribution . The random variable X = the number of successes obtained in the n independent trials.

The mean, μ , and variance, σ 2 , for the binomial probability distribution are μ = np and σ 2 = npq . The standard deviation, σ , is then σ = $\sqrt{npq}$ .

Any experiment that has characteristics three and four and where n = 1 is called a Bernoulli Trial (named after Jacob Bernoulli who, in the late 1600s, studied them extensively). A binomial experiment takes place when the number of successes is counted in one or more Bernoulli Trials.

Suppose you play a game that you can only either win or lose. The probability that you win any game is 55%, and the probability that you lose is 45%. Each game you play is independent. If you play the game 20 times, write the function that describes the probability that you win 15 of the 20 times. Here, if you define X as the number of wins, then X takes on the values 0, 1, 2, 3, ..., 20. The probability of a success is p = 0.55. The probability of a failure is q = 0.45. The number of trials is n = 20. The probability question can be stated mathematically as P ( x = 15).

## Try it

A trainer is teaching a dolphin to do tricks. The probability that the dolphin successfully performs the trick is 35%, and the probability that the dolphin does not successfully perform the trick is 65%. Out of 20 attempts, you want to find the probability that the dolphin succeeds 12 times. Find the P(X=12) using the binomial Pdf.

P ( x = 12)

A fair coin is flipped 15 times. Each flip is independent. What is the probability of getting more than ten heads? Let X = the number of heads in 15 flips of the fair coin. X takes on the values 0, 1, 2, 3, ..., 15. Since the coin is fair, p = 0.5 and q = 0.5. The number of trials is n = 15. State the probability question mathematically.

P ( x >10)

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