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Subjective probability and a football game

The probability that one's favorite football team will win the next Superbowl Game may well be only a subjective probability of the bettor. This is certainlynot a probability that can be determined by a large number of repeated trials. The game is only played once. However, the subjective assessment of probabilitiesmay be based on intimate knowledge of relative strengths and weaknesses of the teams involved, as well as factors such as weather, injuries, and experience. There maybe a considerable objective basis for the subjective assignment of probability. In fact, there is often a hidden “frequentist” element in the subjective evaluation.There is an assessment (perhaps unrealized) that in similar situations the frequencies tend to coincide with the value subjectively assigned.

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The probability of rain

Newscasts often report that the probability of rain of is 20 percent or 60 percent or some other figure. There are several difficulties here.

  • To use the formal mathematical model, there must be precision in determining an event. An event either occurs or it does not. How do wedetermine whether it has rained or not? Must there be a measurable amount? Where must this rain fall to be counted? During what time period?Even if there is agreement on the area, the amount, and the time period, there remains ambiguity: one cannot say with logical certainty the event did occur orit did not occur. Nevertheless, in this and other similar situations, use of the concept of an event may be helpful even if the description is notdefinitive. There is usually enough practical agreement for the concept to be useful.
  • What does a 30 percent probability of rain mean? Does it mean that if the prediction is correct, 30 percent of the areaindicated will get rain (in an agreed amount) during the specified time period? Or does it mean that 30 percent of the occasions on which such aprediction is made there will be significant rainfall in the area during the specified time period? Again, the latter alternative may well hide afrequency interpretation. Does the statement mean that it rains 30 percent of the times when conditions are similar to current conditions?

Regardless of the interpretation, there is some ambiguity about the event and whether it has occurred. And there is some difficulty with knowinghow to interpret the probability figure. While the precise meaning of a 30 percent probability of rain may be difficult to determine, it isgenerally useful to know whether the conditions lead to a 20 percent or a 30 percent or a 40 percent probability assignment. And there is no doubt that asweather forecasting technology and methodology continue to improve the weather probability assessments will become increasingly useful.

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Another common type of probability situation involves determining the distribution of some characteristic over a population—usually by a survey. Thesedata are used to answer the question: What is the probability (likelihood) that a member of the population, chosen “at random” (i.e., on an equallylikely basis) will have a certain characteristic?

Questions & Answers

Is there any normative that regulates the use of silver nanoparticles?
Damian Reply
what king of growth are you checking .?
What fields keep nano created devices from performing or assimulating ? Magnetic fields ? Are do they assimilate ?
Stoney Reply
why we need to study biomolecules, molecular biology in nanotechnology?
Adin Reply
yes I'm doing my masters in nanotechnology, we are being studying all these domains as well..
what school?
biomolecules are e building blocks of every organics and inorganic materials.
anyone know any internet site where one can find nanotechnology papers?
Damian Reply
sciencedirect big data base
Introduction about quantum dots in nanotechnology
Praveena Reply
what does nano mean?
Anassong Reply
nano basically means 10^(-9). nanometer is a unit to measure length.
do you think it's worthwhile in the long term to study the effects and possibilities of nanotechnology on viral treatment?
Damian Reply
absolutely yes
how to know photocatalytic properties of tio2 nanoparticles...what to do now
Akash Reply
it is a goid question and i want to know the answer as well
characteristics of micro business
for teaching engĺish at school how nano technology help us
Do somebody tell me a best nano engineering book for beginners?
s. Reply
there is no specific books for beginners but there is book called principle of nanotechnology
what is fullerene does it is used to make bukky balls
Devang Reply
are you nano engineer ?
fullerene is a bucky ball aka Carbon 60 molecule. It was name by the architect Fuller. He design the geodesic dome. it resembles a soccer ball.
what is the actual application of fullerenes nowadays?
That is a great question Damian. best way to answer that question is to Google it. there are hundreds of applications for buck minister fullerenes, from medical to aerospace. you can also find plenty of research papers that will give you great detail on the potential applications of fullerenes.
what is the Synthesis, properties,and applications of carbon nano chemistry
Abhijith Reply
Mostly, they use nano carbon for electronics and for materials to be strengthened.
is Bucky paper clear?
carbon nanotubes has various application in fuel cells membrane, current research on cancer drug,and in electronics MEMS and NEMS etc
so some one know about replacing silicon atom with phosphorous in semiconductors device?
s. Reply
Yeah, it is a pain to say the least. You basically have to heat the substarte up to around 1000 degrees celcius then pass phosphene gas over top of it, which is explosive and toxic by the way, under very low pressure.
Do you know which machine is used to that process?
how to fabricate graphene ink ?
for screen printed electrodes ?
What is lattice structure?
s. Reply
of graphene you mean?
or in general
in general
Graphene has a hexagonal structure
On having this app for quite a bit time, Haven't realised there's a chat room in it.
what is biological synthesis of nanoparticles
Sanket Reply
how did you get the value of 2000N.What calculations are needed to arrive at it
Smarajit Reply
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A fair die is tossed 180 times. Find the probability P that the face 6 will appear between 29 and 32 times inclusive
Samson Reply

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Source:  OpenStax, Applied probability. OpenStax CNX. Aug 31, 2009 Download for free at http://cnx.org/content/col10708/1.6
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