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Modeling climate to determine the degree and effect of future climate change: what can we expect?

Short answer

The future global surface temperature and some other climate variables can be modeled with reasonable confidence for various scenarios for the future energy policy of the globe. These results are only as good as our ability to predict the actual energy consumption patterns of the whole world.

Detailed answer

Predicting the future with any real precision is virtually impossible. Future climate change depends on several human activities, the most important of which are the use of fossil fuels for energy and continued land use change in the form of new urban communities or reductions of forest areas. The current best way to approach a prediction of future climate is to develop a series of plausible scenarios of future human activity and then run simulations using a multi-model approach to obtain average climate outcomes for each. The results will be an array of different climate futures that can provide a basis for choosing how much climate change we wish to tolerate and what mitigation and life style changes will be necessary to achieve that end.

IPCC adopted scenarios of the Earth’s energy future for the purpose of predicting the resultant climates

Several scenarios have been proposed for the global future. The IPCC “Special Report on Emissions Scenarios” (2000) presents six scenarios for the future. These are named A1B, A1F1, A1T, A2, B1 and B2 and are briefly described in [link] . The carbon emission predictions derived from these scenarios are compared over the next century in [link] . The carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission values are in GtC (Gigatons carbon) per year. A gigaton of carbon refers to only the weight of carbon in the carbon dioxide emissions. The amount of carbon dioxide can be obtained by multiplying the amount of carbon by the ratio of the molecular weights of carbon dioxide to carbon (44/12 = 3.67). Thus the value of the current emission (7 GtC) is really 25.7 Gt carbon dioxide.

The development of carbon emission scenarios over the next century.

The corresponding changes in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide are depicted in [link] .

Values over the next century of predicted atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide.

The most optimistic emission curtailments are found in both A1T and B2. A1T indicates early increases in carbon emissions followed by a steady decline as population peaks and declines and as fossil fuel is replaced by renewable energy sources. B2 stresses moderation on all fronts–social, economic and environmental. The most distressing scenarios for carbon emissions are A1F1, which maintains intensive fossil energy, and A2, which is probably the closest scenario to “business as usual”. The last two scenarios, A1B and B1, end up the century with intermediate carbon emissions. Because A1B peaks and is decreasing as 2100 approaches, it has greater promise of even lower values in the following century. Yet, B1 is a very probably the most realistic approximation of the best that can be expected for the world. Each of these scenarios has been subject to multiple computer simulations and the best estimated average global surface temperature increase (°C) as well as the statistical error bar (to the right) and the envelope of uncertainty for each model are exhibited in [link] .

Modeled global temperature values for the standard IPCC fossil fuel scenarios.

Although none of these scenarios is thought to accurately depict the actual future of the world, they do give a reasonable range of behavior options we may adapt in order to mitigate the possible climate change. The model process also provides us with good estimates of the relationship between actual atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and resulting expected temperature change. Models also can provide us with information about changes in other climate factors such as regional changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration, soil moisture, sea surface temperature and acidity, and others, all leading to changes in agricultural productivity, sea level and coastal flooding, public health, species viability and ecosystem health. The top of [link] presents the maximum, minimum and most probable average surface global temperature associated with various atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. The bottom part of [link] then relates these temperature changes to various observable impacts in the form of arrows starting out yellow at temperatures associated with small effects to red at temperatures at which the effects become severe. For example, the first food effect starts with minor falling crop yields in some regions at about 1.5°C temperature change to severe crop failures at temperature changes over 5°C. Scenarios A1T or B2 are the most optimistic scenarios considered. They both show a modest increase in carbon dioxide emission peaking around 2040 and coming back to current levels by 2100 ( [link] ). Even under these “best cases”, the atmospheric concentration by 2100 will have reached a value of approximately 550 parts per million ( [link] ) and the temperature change due to the addition of these gases will have reached about 2.5°C (4.5°F) with an uncertainty of ±0.8°C ( [link] ). The worse case scenario considered is represented by A1F1. This scenario is essentially “business as usual” or no significant changes from current energy practices. In this scenario, carbon dioxide emission reaches over 28 billion tons of carbon (102 tons of carbon dioxide equivalents) per year ( [link] ) with an atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration over 900 parts per million ( [link] ). The model temperature rise predicted for the year 2100 by this scenario is 4.5°C (8.1°F) ( [link] ). This scenario is where we are currently headed and is completely unacceptable. [link] shows what kind of a world we can expect. The Amazon rainforest is gone, hurricanes have increased in intensity, crop yields are down, sea level threatens coastal cities, and there is a possibility of passing the tipping point to a large-scale abrupt climate change.

Examples of impacts associated with various projected global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and resulting temperature change (Stern. Sir N. (2006) Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change).

Questions & Answers

Hi, I have a question. What factors influence social facilitation and social inhibition in groups?
Amritpal Reply
it really depends on that person on how the can task in life either they can work better with other people or you do worse working with people.
the task
they task
Do you know of any studies done to show social facilitation and social inhibition
social facilitation is often influenced by the person's perception of the situation and their appraisal of the task. for example, a track athlete who views their competition as a challenge rather than a threat, will tend to run the fastest they have ever ran under a large crowd.
Another condition is if the person has mastered the ability to perform that task. A track athlete who trains everyday, will perform above average under a large crowd, however, someone who does not run, will tend to do worse than their actual ability under a large crowd
social inhibition can be explained through evolutionary biology or attachment personality theory. some people develop an avoidance personality trait, which when they feel under pressure, they tend to leave the group or avoid a gathering due to high lev of stress
Does anyone know how I can transfer my higher national diploma credits in usa?
Qwanta Reply
Oh wow. I never realised there was a chat on this app!
Amritpal Reply
Then welcome dearest
Thank you! ❤️
thank you
Hello Ana, good afternoon from here
Philip Reply
hello im new student here.
Junalyn Reply
o sorry madm
I m also student.
what is easier option to psychology?
I'm new too
As in the the specialisation or ?
good morning
understanding human nature is what we are going to talk about.
okay, go ahead
“ Every child is left to evaluate his experiences for himself, and to take care of his own personal development outside the classroom. There is no tradition for the acquisition of a true knowledge of the human psyche. The science of human nature thus finds itself today in the position that chemis
well, I think every individual is different and to a great extent we can't say confidently that we understand the human nature in its entirety
lack determines what we will become in life?.
Not 100% but it plays a huge role
Hi! I wasn't aware there was a chat feature on this app 😊
👍Philip Anyaegbu
yes Ana I'm here
alternatively we are different, we have basic similar qualities
Yes true Bridget.
hello there
who we are how we think what we do insight
@ bridget. yes that's true
Ana ioanidis? do you speak Greek?
Qwanta no I dont speak Greek my husband does
are you a psychologist? or your husband?
I need some reliable informations about my studies...
not a psychologist
I ask questions
so what is the cause why a person experiences a psychological disorder if it not of their own?
Junalyn Reply
it's partly genetics,culture, environment and substance abuse. generally these are the common factors which can lead to most of the disorders
r u proficcer
u r psychology subject
not a professor but a clinical psychologist
can i ask you, i keep getting headache, and had a history of hypothyroid ans diagnosed as having mild anxiety disorder. i want to finish. my undergraduate psychology thesis.. but always unable to have good ambition and energy to focus on writing the case and the theories... whats the best remedy
had a headache and have a history
297 according to the DSM 5
how many disorders are there
Janareon Reply
interesting question
it is😅
I'm guessing it's in the tens of thousands, maybe hundreds if you include counter interactions and stuff like it. although I'm sure it's almost impossible to know for sure, unless you're very rich and connected to the right people. but as I said: guessing.
There are more than 200 classified forms of mental illness. Some of the more common disorders are: clinical depression, bipolar disorder, dementia, schizophrenia and anxiety disorders. Symptoms may include changes in mood, personality, personal habits and/or social withdrawal. that is what I think
too difficult to number. diagnosing a disorder is just checking off boxes on a compilation of symptoms that might match any particular condition on the DSM
what is psychology of the guest
Lirilong Reply
I don't understand the question can you elaborate?
the study of philosophy gives to the sociologist
Aman Reply
why women are viewed as far more emotional than men?
Wario Reply
because they actually are ,I guess.
May be they are biologically milder than man. It does not mean they are not equal with man. Man can also be emotional and can are oppressed with traditional norms. For example, man are not to be cry, in actual man are also emotional being and they cannot have the right to show their sentiment.
sollungal bro sollungal...
because of she has hormonal fluctuations than men..
usually women are more emotional than men and they are multi talented people
Both men and women are capable of expressing emotions. But women has the highest percentage of doing that. Because our society is conditioned by nature in such a way that men are expected to suppress their emotions and motivate them through their acts or thoughts, which has it's side effects of....
denial of any emotion which they feel that useless at that point. Women in the other hand were encouraged/not controlled to suppress their emotions and let them out what they feel about it. I feel that's the wonderful superpower of the women.
Men's emotion comes mostly with memories triggered by senses. That means, they thoughts have the power to decide whether to let go of emotions or not.
because women tend to be more agreeable than men.
women at a young age are conditioned to be more in tune with emotion than man should be less
The question is "Why women Viewed are as far more emotional than men ?" it's not a question whether women are more emotional than men. This is more an issue about the point of view from the observer, his/her assumption what emotional behavior is or what emotional behavior is.
The anwers are answers more to the question " Are women more emotional than men?"
hi are you on what'sap
Wunuji Reply
no not really a fan of social laziness
is there any way for a Btech E.C.E. graduate to take on MSC. PSYCHOLOGY
ya you can just by cracking entrance , if in India
Any stream in UG can go for M.Sc (Psychology)
classification of traits and how they are measured
chinedu Reply
what was Freud's first name?
Robin Reply
Sigismund Schlomo Freud
Sigmund Freud
Leon Vygotsky and Sergei Rubenstein please tell me contributions of these personalities in in 4 lines
sigmund Freud
Lev Vygotsky was the founder of socio-cultural theory
So psychology was based off of the Greek gods I that right or no?
Tanya Reply
psychology is the study. anything -ology is the study of a certain field. Psyche is a mortal woman who becomes divine in Greek mythology. The etymology of the word "psyche" in Greek means "spirit" or "soul"
seriously there is no scope of psychology all over the world.i hear those how have psychology degrees they have no careers
Madeeha Reply
psychology degree is the waste of time qnd waste of money.is this true?...
at least you know people's minds
well, i like this subject for helping myself and others as well, not for the scope or anything. and i think we shouldn't liberate everything on the basis of outcomes etc
very useful skill
It is not at all true that people who have psychology degree have no career scope
If u complete your M.Phil then you can work in hospitals as a clinical psychologist.You can also work in school, colleges and IT companies as a counsellor or clinical psychologist.
people are so stressful and tense, and they need a psychologist
yo fr tbh lol
if some one have only master degree in psychology what will he/she do...where he/she utilizes degree
Not if you have set goals and a plan. Look into what careers are available with your degree where you live. Also it helps to have a specialty along with your psychology degree. For example a Bachelor's degree in Psychology of Science in Addictions allows for you to become an addictions counselor.
Psychology is really a valuable degree. I would like to become an "EDUCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGIST "
there is no proper society of Psychology. so it doesn't get a good exposure in our country. we along with whole student need to discuss and approach to government
Psychology is not only a diverse field but also one that is expected to grow tremendously in the years to come. As a subject dealing with the study of the human psyche or mind, psychology finds applications across all avenues of life, be it family, work, relationships, sports, corporate spaces
Clinical Psychology As is suggestive, this branch of psychology is associated to the understanding, diagnosis and treatment of psychological disorders in humans. Clinical psychologists help people facing difficulties in their life to get through it using different treatment methods and therapies.
These professionals work with hospitals, NGOs and even drug rehabilitation centers. As people become increasingly aware of different psychological disorders with time, the need for experts in clinical psychology is only expected to grow.
Counseling Psychology Counseling psychology is a branch of psychology that helps solve people’s personal and interpersonal issues. These issues can be problematic but are different from serious mental health issues. Counseling psychologists or counselors help people deal with such issues when they
fail to do it on their own.Career counseling, guidance counseling, marital counseling and rehabilitation counseling are among the many applications of counseling psychology. These professionals either manage their own counseling set-ups or work with therapycenters, career centers, NGOs as well as
schools and universities. Industrial or Organizational Psychology Organizational psychologists are professionals who apply the principles of psychology in organizations or workplaces. They analyze the issues of the workplace at individual as well as organizational level, and work towards resolving
them to enhance the efficiency of the employees. Those specializing in organizational psychology can choose to work as – • Human resource development specialists • HR managers • Organizational consultants With increasing pressure and stress levels at work places, the need for emotional understandi
understanding and gauging social intelligence has become stronger. Child Psychology (Development psychology) Development psychology is a branch of psychology that is dedicated to studying the psychological development of human beings over the course of their lifetime. Child psychology is one of
the more popular variants of development psychology, and deals with emotional, cognitive, social and psychomotor development in infants and children. Child psychologists work with schools, child therapy centers and also NGOs. They also play big roles in special education centers for children.
Sports Psychology This branch of psychology deals with the study of elements that influence an athlete’s performance. These elements or factors could be emotional, cognitive, psychological or motivational. Sports psychologists can go on to work with sports coaching centers, leagues, academies or
sports teams. Sports psychologists aid sportspersons to stay in their best mental forms, thus improving their performances on the ground. With the frenzy regarding sports in India, sports psychology is a promising career to pursue.
Forensic Psychology Forensic psychology offers a unique opportunity to apply psychology to the benefit of legal organizations, especially pertaining to specific contents or witness testimony. Professionals in this field utilize their skills to look deep into the psyche of criminals and figure out
the intent behind the crime. This helps define the quantum and nature of sentence to be rendered. With the onset of new legal era, forensic psychology is expected to influence policy making.
psychology and the jobs in psychology are the ever growing fields. there are number of jobs available. but, yes, one needs the right qualification, such as, MPhil, PhD, NET, etc.
No. Psychology has a great scope all over world
Because of 90% people has stress or anxiety or any other mental problem. So they have a need of Psychologist.
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Source:  OpenStax, Global climate change. OpenStax CNX. Sep 14, 2009 Download for free at http://cnx.org/content/col10704/1.4
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