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Unexpected productivity changes and unemployment

The two graphs reveal how changes in productivity can impact wages and unemployment
(a) Productivity is rising, increasing the demand for labor. Employers and workers become used to the pattern of wage increases. Then productivity suddenly stops increasing. However, the expectations of employers and workers for wage increases do not shift immediately, so wages keep rising as before. But the demand for labor has not increased, so at wage W 4 , unemployment exists where the quantity supplied of labor exceeds the quantity demanded. (b) The rate of productivity increase has been zero for a time, so employers and workers have come to accept the equilibrium wage level (W). Then productivity increases unexpectedly, shifting demand for labor from D 0 to D 1 . At the wage (W), this means that the quantity demanded of labor exceeds the quantity supplied, and with job offers plentiful, the unemployment rate will be low.

The late 1990s provide an opposite example: instead of the surprise decline in productivity in the 1970s, productivity unexpectedly rose in the mid-1990s. The annual growth rate of real output per hour of labor increased from 1.7% from 1980–1995, to an annual rate of 2.6% from 1995–2001. Let’s simplify the situation a bit, so that the economic lesson of the story is easier to see graphically, and say that productivity had not been increasing at all in earlier years, so the intersection of the labor market was at point E in [link] (b), where the demand curve for labor (D 0 ) intersects the supply curve for labor. As a result, real wages were not increasing. Now, productivity jumps upward, which shifts the demand for labor out to the right, from D 0 to D 1 . At least for a time, however, wages are still being set according to the earlier expectations of no productivity growth, so wages do not rise. The result is that at the prevailing wage level (W), the quantity of labor demanded (Qd) will for a time exceed the quantity of labor supplied (Qs), and unemployment will be very low—actually below the natural level of unemployment for a time. This pattern of unexpectedly high productivity helps to explain why the unemployment rate stayed below 4.5%—quite a low level by historical standards—from 1998 until after the U.S. economy had entered a recession in 2001.

Average levels of unemployment will tend to be somewhat higher on average when productivity is unexpectedly low, and conversely, will tend to be somewhat lower on average when productivity is unexpectedly high. But over time, wages do eventually adjust to reflect productivity levels.

Public policy and the natural rate of unemployment

Public policy can also have a powerful effect on the natural rate of unemployment. On the supply side of the labor market, public policies to assist the unemployed can affect how eager people are to find work. For example, if a worker who loses a job is guaranteed a generous package of unemployment insurance, welfare benefits, food stamps, and government medical benefits, then the opportunity cost of being unemployed is lower and that worker will be less eager to seek a new job.

Questions & Answers

identify and quantify five social costs and social benefits of building a school
Mokgobo Reply
identify and quantity five social costs and social benefits of building a hospital
Mokgobo
short run vs long run
Jean
is it true that the opportunity cost of unemployed labour is zero?
Wisdom Reply
no
Oigebe
give two forms of collusion
nondumiso Reply
1.Explicit Collusion: Also termed overt collusion, this occurs when two or more firms in the same industry formally agree to control the market .
Gafar
2.Implicit Collusion: Also termed tacit collusion, this occurs when two or more firms in the same industry informally agree to control the market, often through nothing more than interdependent actions. A prime example of implicit collusion is price leadership .
Gafar
explicit collusion: this occurs when two or more firms in the same industry legally agree to control the market
Panashe
implicit collusion this occurs when two or more firms in the same industry illegally agree to control the market
Panashe
what is responsible for investigating cases of collusion
nondumiso
reasons why a country maybe involved in international trade
Nde Reply
state five similarities and differences between money market and capital market
Victoria Reply
Give a Zimbabwean example of firms operating in an oligopoly market and illustrate using diagrams how a manager in such a market maximize profit
Pam Reply
what is an industry
EWAH Reply
An industry is the production of goods and related services within an economy
Prabhu
an industry is place where goods and services are produced for human consumption....
Usman
scarcity is the major course of economics problems. discuss
Abdulhameed Reply
please say about that it is interesting for us
Abayneh
what is economics
Michael Reply
economics is a social sciences that deals with the production distribution and consumption of goods and services produced.its study of behaviour between economic agents
rkesh
what is the formula for elasticity of demand
Ridwan
change in demand/change in variable variable may be price, income,
rkesh
seasonal unemployment
Enoch Reply
example agriculture
lungku
want and scarcity
Prince
why the average of revenue AR fun
Abba
What is monopoli
Gadrey Reply
What is monopoly
Gadrey
monopoly
Hanan
monipoly ..where one firm controls all the market
RAM
what is demand
Jafar Reply
demand is what one willing and enable to purchase at a given price over period of a time.
Micheal
what is marginal revenue
just
distinguish between commercialization and industrialization
Alhassan Reply
why division of labour increase economy level of production
Henry Reply
what is opportunity coast
Henry Reply
a benefit profit or value of something that must be given up to acquire achieve something else
ammara
thx
Henry
in a comparison of the stages of meiosis to the stage of mitosis, which stages are unique to meiosis and which stages have the same event in botg meiosis and mitosis
Leah Reply
Equilibrium price is a stable price and it must stay.discuss
Elvis Reply
Card 14 / 21: What are the similarities between a consumer’s budget constraint and society’s production possibilities frontier, not just graphically but analytically?
Ali Reply

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Source:  OpenStax, Principles of macroeconomics for ap® courses. OpenStax CNX. Aug 24, 2015 Download for free at http://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11864/1.2
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