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Fluctuations in exchange rates

Exchange rates can fluctuate a great deal in the short run. As yet one more example, the Indian rupee moved from 39 rupees/dollar in February 2008 to 51 rupees/dollar in March 2009, a decline of more than one-fourth in the value of the rupee on foreign exchange markets. [link] earlier showed that even two economically developed neighboring economies like the United States and Canada can see significant movements in exchange rates over a few years. For firms that depend on export sales, or firms that rely on imported inputs to production, or even purely domestic firms that compete with firms tied into international trade—which in many countries adds up to half or more of a nation’s GDP—sharp movements in exchange rates can lead to dramatic changes in profits and losses. So, a central bank may desire to keep exchange rates from moving too much as part of providing a stable business climate, where firms can focus on productivity and innovation, not on reacting to exchange rate fluctuations.

One of the most economically destructive effects of exchange rate fluctuations can happen through the banking system. Most international loans are measured in a few large currencies, like U.S. dollars, European euros, and Japanese yen. In countries that do not use these currencies, banks often borrow funds in the currencies of other countries, like U.S. dollars, but then lend in their own domestic currency. The left-hand chain of events in [link] shows how this pattern of international borrowing can work. A bank in Thailand borrows one million in U.S. dollars. Then the bank converts the dollars to its domestic currency—in the case of Thailand, the currency is the baht—at a rate of 40 baht/dollar. The bank then lends the baht to a firm in Thailand. The business repays the loan in baht, and the bank converts it back to U.S. dollars to pay off its original U.S. dollar loan.

International borrowing

The chart shows two scenarios resulting from international borrowing.
The scenario of international borrowing that ends on the left is a success story, but the scenario that ends on the right shows what happens when the exchange rate weakens.

This process of borrowing in a foreign currency and lending in a domestic currency can work just fine, as long as the exchange rate does not shift. In the scenario outlined, if the dollar strengthens and the baht weakens, a problem arises. The right-hand chain of events in [link] illustrates what happens when the baht unexpectedly weakens from 40 baht/dollar to 50 baht/dollar. The Thai firm still repays the loan in full to the bank. But because of the shift in the exchange rate, the bank cannot repay its loan in U.S. dollars. (Of course, if the exchange rate had changed in the other direction, making the Thai currency stronger, the bank could have realized an unexpectedly large profit.)

In 1997–1998, countries across eastern Asia, like Thailand, Korea, Malaysia, and Indonesia, experienced a sharp depreciation of their currencies, in some cases 50% or more. These countries had been experiencing substantial inflows of foreign investment capital , with bank lending increasing by 20% to 30% per year through the mid-1990s. When their exchange rates depreciated, the banking systems in these countries were bankrupt. Argentina experienced a similar chain of events in 2002. When the Argentine peso depreciated, Argentina’s banks found themselves unable to pay back what they had borrowed in U.S. dollars.

Banks play a vital role in any economy in facilitating transactions and in making loans to firms and consumers. When most of a country’s largest banks become bankrupt simultaneously, a sharp decline in aggregate demand and a deep recession results. Since the main responsibilities of a central bank are to control the money supply and to ensure that the banking system is stable, a central bank must be concerned about whether large and unexpected exchange rate depreciation will drive most of the country’s existing banks into bankruptcy. For more on this concern, return to the chapter on The International Trade and Capital Flows .

Summing up public policy and exchange rates

Every nation would prefer a stable exchange rate to facilitate international trade and reduce the degree of risk and uncertainty in the economy. However, a nation may sometimes want a weaker exchange rate to stimulate aggregate demand and reduce a recession, or a stronger exchange rate to fight inflation. The country must also be concerned that rapid movements from a weak to a strong exchange rate may cripple its export industries, while rapid movements from a strong to a weak exchange rate can cripple its banking sector. In short, every choice of an exchange rate—whether it should be stronger or weaker, or fixed or changing—represents potential tradeoffs.

Key concepts and summary

A central bank will be concerned about the exchange rate for several reasons. Exchange rates will affect imports and exports, and thus affect aggregate demand in the economy. Fluctuations in exchange rates may cause difficulties for many firms, but especially banks. The exchange rate may accompany unsustainable flows of international financial capital.

Questions & Answers

what is tot ?
Priyanka Reply
what's economic
kamal Reply
Management of money such as saving.
babu
study of how society manage it's scare resources
Maulik
Please help me how to compute national income. what are those included on national income like for an example in W= WAGE what included in wage ?
love Reply
what is competitive market?
Shantal Reply
a compataive market is when there are many producers competating to provide consumers with a goods and services needed
Tanveer
in a compitative market no single producer or consumer can dictate the market
Tanveer
where many buyer and many seller interact for particular good or service, all buyers and sellers have negligible affect on market price.
Maulik
types of demand elasticity
Farouq Reply
What is price elasticity of demand and its degrees. also explain factors determing price elasticity of demand?
Yutansh Reply
Price elasticity of demand (PED) is use to measure the degree of responsiveness of Quantity demanded for a given change on price of the good itself, certis paribus. The formula for PED = percentage change in quantity demanded/ percentage change in price of good A
GOH
its is necessarily negative due to the inverse relationship between price and Quantity demanded. since PED carries a negative sign most of the time, we will usually the absolute value of PED by dropping the negative sign.
GOH
PED > 1 means that the demand of the good is price elasticity and for a given increase in price there will be a more then proportionate decrease in quantity demanded.
GOH
PED < 1 means that the demand of the good is price inelasticity and for a given increase in price there will be a less then proportionate decrease in quantity demanded.
GOH
The factors that affects PES are: Avaliablilty of close substitutes, proportion of income spent on the good, Degree of necessity, Addiction and Time.
GOH
Calculate price elasticity of demand and comment on the shape of the demand curve of a good ,when its price rises by 20 percentage, quantity demanded falls from 150 units to 120 units.
Helen Reply
5 %fall in price of good x leads to a 10 % rise in its quantity demanded. A 20 % rise in price of good y leads to do a 10 % fall in its quantity demanded. calculate price elasticity of demand of good x and good y. Out of the two goods which one is more elastic.
Helen
what is labor
Grace Reply
labor is any physical or mental effort that helps in the production of goods and services
Kwabena
what is profit maximizing level of out put for above hypothetical firm TC = Q3 - 21Q2 + 600 + 1800 P = 600 MC = 3Q2 - 42Q + 600
Sosna Reply
consider two goods X and Y. When the price of Y changes from 10 to 20. The quantity demanded of X changes from 40 to 35. Calculate cross elasticity of demand for X.
Sosna
sorry it the mistake answer it is question
Sosna
consider two goods X and Y. When the price of Y changes from 10 to 20. The quantity demanded of X changes from 40 to 35. Calculate cross elasticity of demand for X.
Sosna
The formula for calculation income elasticity of demand is the percent change in quantity demanded divided by the percent change in income.
Sosna
what is labor productivity
Lizzy Reply
if the demand function is q=25-4p+p² 1.find elasticity of demand at the point p=5?
Puja Reply
what are some of the difference between monopoly and perfect competition market
Obeng Reply
n a perfectly competitive market, price equals marginal cost and firms earn an economic profit of zero. In a monopoly, the price is set above marginal cost and the firm earns a positive economic profit. Perfect competition produces an equilibrium in which the price and quantity of a good is economic
Naima
what are some characteristics of monopoly market
Obeng Reply
explicit cost is seen as a total experiences in the business or the salary (wages) that a firm pay to employee.
Idagu Reply
what is price elasticity
Fosua
...
krishna
it is the degree of responsiveness to a percentage change in the price of the commodity
Obeng
economics is known to be the field
John Reply

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Source:  OpenStax, Principles of economics. OpenStax CNX. Sep 19, 2014 Download for free at http://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11613/1.11
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