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Visit this website to read “The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Economic Commentary: A New Approach to Gauging Inflation Expectations” by Joseph G. Haubrich for more information about how expected inflation is forecast.

The neoclassical phillips curve tradeoff

The Keynesian Perspective introduced the Phillips curve    and explained how it is derived from the aggregate supply curve. The short run upward sloping aggregate supply curve implies a downward sloping Phillips curve; thus, there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment in the short run. By contrast, a neoclassical long-run aggregate supply curve will imply a vertical shape for the Phillips curve, indicating no long run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. [link] (a) shows the vertical AS curve, with three different levels of aggregate demand, resulting in three different equilibria, at three different price levels. At every point along that vertical AS curve, potential GDP and the rate of unemployment remains the same. Assume that for this economy, the natural rate of unemployment is 5%. As a result, the long-run Phillips curve relationship, shown in [link] (b), is a vertical line, rising up from 5% unemployment, at any level of inflation. Read the following Work It Out feature for additional information on how to interpret inflation and unemployment rates.

From a long-run as curve to a long-run phillips curve

The graph shows three aggregate demand curves that all intersect with the vertical potential GDP line at 400 on the x-axis. Line AD0 intersects at (110, 400); line AD1 intersects at (115, 400); and line AD2 intersects at (120, 400).
(a) With a vertical LRAS curve, shifts in aggregate demand do not alter the level of output but do lead to changes in the price level. Because output is unchanged between the equilibria E 0 , E 1 , and E 2 , all unemployment in this economy will be due to the natural rate of unemployment. (b) If the natural rate of unemployment is 5%, then the Phillips curve will be vertical. That is, regardless of changes in the price level, the unemployment rate remains at 5%.

Tracking inflation and unemployment rates

Suppose that you have collected data for years on the rates of inflation and unemployment and recorded them in a table, such as [link] . How do you interpret that information?

Year Inflation Rate Unemployment Rate
1970 2% 4%
1975 3% 3%
1980 2% 4%
1985 1% 6%
1990 1% 4%
1995 4% 2%
2000 5% 4%

Step 1. Plot the data points in a graph with inflation rate on the vertical axis and unemployment rate on the horizontal axis. Your graph will appear similar to [link] .

Inflation rates

This graph shows several points of intersection between unemployment rates and inflation rates, one point for each year. Horizontal dashed lines extend from the y-axis at 5%, 4%, 3%, 2%, 1% and 5%. Vertical dashed lines extend from the x-axis at 2%, 3%, 4%, 6% and 4%. The points of intersection between these various lines are (2, 3); (3, 3), (4, 1); (4, 2); (4, 5); (6, 1); (5, 4).

Step 2. What patterns do you see in the data? You should notice that there are years when unemployment falls but inflation rises, and other years where unemployment rises and inflation falls.

Step 3. Can you determine the natural rate of unemployment from the data or from the graph? As you analyze the graph, it appears that the natural rate of unemployment lies at 4%; this is the rate that the economy appears to adjust back to after an apparent change in the economy. For example, in 1975 the economy appeared to have an increase in aggregate demand; the unemployment rate fell to 3% but inflation increased from 2% to 3%. By 1980, the economy had adjusted back to 4% unemployment and the inflation rate had returned to 2%. In 1985, the economy looks to have suffered a recession as unemployment rose to 6% and inflation fell to 1%. This would be consistent with a decrease in aggregate demand. By 1990, the economy recovered back to 4% unemployment, but at a lower inflation rate of 1%. In 1995 the economy again rebounded and unemployment fell to 2%, but inflation increased to 4%, which is consistent with a large increase in aggregate demand. The economy adjusted back to 4% unemployment but at a higher rate of inflation of 5%. Then in 2000, both unemployment and inflation increased to 5% and 4%, respectively.

Step 4. Do you see the Phillips curve(s) in the data? If we trace the downward sloping trend of data points, we could see a short-run Phillips curve that exhibits the inverse tradeoff between higher unemployment and lower inflation rates. If we trace the vertical line of data points, we could see a long-run Phillips curve at the 4% natural rate of unemployment.

Questions & Answers

meaning nature and scope of macroeconomics
Diksha Reply
meaning of macroeconomics
Diksha
meaning of macroeconomics
Diksha
meaning of macroeconomics
Diksha
Macroeconomics covers aggregate or in simple words overall economy of country or world while microeconomics was just concerned with individual economies
Hamza
Hope this helped you, you can search it more on Google there is a YouTube page by the name of jacob Clifford
Hamza
How aggregate demand and output gap are related explain in the light of keynesian cross diagram
Muhammad Reply
what are the jobs of an economist
Shadrach Reply
study and predict economic indicators. give a economic base for polictical decision
mike
using the aggregate supply - aggregate demand model , explain how out and prices are determined , will out vary or stay fix in long run ?
SHAKEEL Reply
can you explain please
Tadesse
explain me too
Frank
The long-run aggregate supply curve is a vertical line at the potential level of output. The intersection of the economy’s aggregate demand and long-run aggregate supply curves determines its equilibrium real GDP and price level in the long run. Am I correct?
Tadesse
so it will out vary
Tadesse
no one corrects me
Tadesse
yes no-one corrects you.
Frank
but I'm here to listen your answer
Frank
aggregate supply is total of all industry supply.
Frank
In the long-run, the aggregate supply is graphed vertically on the supply curve. The equation used to determine the long-run aggregate supply is: Y = Y*. In the equation, Y is the production of the economy and Y* is the natural level of production of the economy.
Frank
yes you're correct Mr. Tedessa
Frank
What's a slope?
Tatiana Reply
change
Frank
rate of change,
Frank
😀😀 always happy. ....
Manjeck
interaction of demand and supply
Raka Reply
not know
Narayandutt
aggregate demand ko aur kin namo se Jana jata hai
Narayandutt Reply
aggregate demand ko kin namo se Jana jata
Narayandutt
Discuss briefly, the circular flow of income in a two-sector economy.
Kweku Reply
WHY DEVELOP COUNTRIES RELY ON DEVELOPED COUNTRIES?
Ben Reply
that is choice and want....
DJ
what is the determination of aggregate demand?
Maddy Reply
C+I consumption + investment
Rohit
AD= C+I+G+(X-M)
Rana
classical dichotomy and its components?
Romaisa Reply
what will happen to the demand curve when there is an inflation in an economy
Hamza Reply
From my view, I think the demand curve will shift inwards.
Bobo
now it depends on what kind of inflation it is, depending on the type of inflation the movement of the demand curve can be stated.
Munimu
yes it depends on the cause for inflation. if it caused by maybe an increase in money supply, the effect is neutral in the long term, therefore there are no effects on total output in the economy, except for an increase in price
Lucas
but short term in general i think you could expect the demand curve to shift inwards as consumers experience a decrease in real income
Lucas
source of capital for the sole trader
Dogbey Reply
borrowing from relatives, government grants, bank loans, personal savings, credit card etc.
Munimu
Suppose you are holding 2000 in a checking account and the price level decrease by 20 %how much it will affect your purchasing power and why
Iqra Reply
Hi Iqra, will answer your question soon.
Aleem
2000*0.2= 400 2000-400= 1600
Munimu
1600
Munimu
a price level decrease is deflation. it means you'll be able to afford to buy more with your 2000 and your real income becomes 2000÷(100-20)=2500
Lucas
the amount will decrease to 1600 and you can't be able to buy over this amount
Agogo
As an economist student discuss how the pandemic covid19 can affect the aggregate demand and aggregate supply thereby leading to decrease in GDP and standard of living of citizens of nigeria
Fadila Reply
pandemic covid19 has already resulted to recession among nations. Recession on the other hand, refers to a fall in aggregate demand due to low income, no or little savings, low productivity among firms, layoffs of workers and so on. currently, international trade is on the hold which has drastically
Okeoghene
affected the GDP and GNP of countries. This to a large extent has affected the purchasing power of consumers
Okeoghene
Hence the standard of living is questionable among nations especially among developing nations
Okeoghene

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Source:  OpenStax, Macroeconomics. OpenStax CNX. Jun 16, 2014 Download for free at http://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11626/1.10
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