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By the end of this section, you will be able to:

  • Discuss twin deficits as they related to budget and trade deficit
  • Explain the relationship between budget deficits and exchange rates
  • Explain the relationship between budget deficits and inflation
  • Identify causes of recessions

Government budget balances can affect the trade balance. As The Keynesian Perspective chapter discusses, a net inflow of foreign financial investment always accompanies a trade deficit, while a net outflow of financial investment always accompanies a trade surplus. One way to understand the connection from budget deficits to trade deficits is that when government creates a budget deficit with some combination of tax cuts or spending increases, it will increase aggregate demand in the economy, and some of that increase in aggregate demand will result in a higher level of imports. A higher level of imports, with exports remaining fixed, will cause a larger trade deficit. That means foreigners’ holdings of dollars increase as Americans purchase more imported goods. Foreigners use those dollars to invest in the United States, which leads to an inflow of foreign investment. One possible source of funding our budget deficit is foreigners buying Treasury securities that are sold by the U.S. government. So a budget deficit is often accompanied by a trade deficit.

Twin deficits?

In the mid-1980s, it was common to hear economists and even newspaper articles refer to the twin deficits, as the budget deficit and trade deficit both grew substantially. [link] shows the pattern. The federal budget deficit went from 2.6% of GDP in 1981 to 5.1% of GDP in 1985—a drop of 2.5% of GDP. Over that time, the trade deficit moved from 0.5% in 1981 to 2.9% in 1985—a drop of 2.4% of GDP. In the mid-1980s, the considerable increase in government borrowing was matched by an inflow of foreign investment capital, so the government budget deficit and the trade deficit moved together.

U.s. budget deficits and trade deficits

The graph shows little relation between the rising (getting larger) and falling of the budget deficit and trade deficit since the 1980s.
In the 1980s, the budget deficit and the trade deficit declined at the same time. However, since then, the deficits have stopped being twins. The trade deficit grew smaller in the early 1990s as the budget deficit increased, and then the trade deficit grew larger in the late 1990s as the budget deficit turned into a surplus. In the first half of the 2000s, both budget and trade deficits increased. But in 2009, the trade deficit declined as the budget deficit increased.

Of course, no one should expect the budget deficit and trade deficit to move in lockstep, because the other parts of the national saving and investment identity—investment and private savings—will often change as well. In the late 1990s, for example, the government budget balance turned from deficit to surplus, but the trade deficit remained large and growing. During this time, the inflow of foreign financial investment was supporting a surge of physical capital investment by U.S. firms. In the first half of the 2000s, the budget and trade deficits again increased together, but in 2009, the budget deficit increased while the trade deficit declined. The budget deficit and the trade deficits are related to each other, but they are more like cousins than twins.

Questions & Answers

what is economics
Danquah Reply
primary production/industry
Dzansi Reply
fishing is which type of industry
Jaismeen Reply
what influence the shift in demand unli rice ban?
Sherryl Reply
who is consider as a father of modren micro economic
Maqdoor Reply
alfred marhasall
unarine
Adam smith
Tanveer
alfred marhasall
naresh
Adam Smith
Yusif
what is tot ?
Priyanka Reply
disadvantages of a free economy
Henry
what's economic
kamal Reply
Management of money such as saving.
babu
study of how society manage it's scare resources
Maulik
Please help me how to compute national income. what are those included on national income like for an example in W= WAGE what included in wage ?
love Reply
what is competitive market?
Shantal Reply
a compataive market is when there are many producers competating to provide consumers with a goods and services needed
Tanveer
in a compitative market no single producer or consumer can dictate the market
Tanveer
where many buyer and many seller interact for particular good or service, all buyers and sellers have negligible affect on market price.
Maulik
Like an oligopoly, it may cause deflation sometimes.
babu
types of demand elasticity
Farouq Reply
What is price elasticity of demand and its degrees. also explain factors determing price elasticity of demand?
Yutansh Reply
Price elasticity of demand (PED) is use to measure the degree of responsiveness of Quantity demanded for a given change on price of the good itself, certis paribus. The formula for PED = percentage change in quantity demanded/ percentage change in price of good A
GOH
its is necessarily negative due to the inverse relationship between price and Quantity demanded. since PED carries a negative sign most of the time, we will usually the absolute value of PED by dropping the negative sign.
GOH
PED > 1 means that the demand of the good is price elasticity and for a given increase in price there will be a more then proportionate decrease in quantity demanded.
GOH
PED < 1 means that the demand of the good is price inelasticity and for a given increase in price there will be a less then proportionate decrease in quantity demanded.
GOH
The factors that affects PES are: Avaliablilty of close substitutes, proportion of income spent on the good, Degree of necessity, Addiction and Time.
GOH
Calculate price elasticity of demand and comment on the shape of the demand curve of a good ,when its price rises by 20 percentage, quantity demanded falls from 150 units to 120 units.
Helen Reply
5 %fall in price of good x leads to a 10 % rise in its quantity demanded. A 20 % rise in price of good y leads to do a 10 % fall in its quantity demanded. calculate price elasticity of demand of good x and good y. Out of the two goods which one is more elastic.
Helen
what is labor
Grace Reply
labor is any physical or mental effort that helps in the production of goods and services
Kwabena
what is profit maximizing level of out put for above hypothetical firm TC = Q3 - 21Q2 + 600 + 1800 P = 600 MC = 3Q2 - 42Q + 600
Sosna Reply
consider two goods X and Y. When the price of Y changes from 10 to 20. The quantity demanded of X changes from 40 to 35. Calculate cross elasticity of demand for X.
Sosna
sorry it the mistake answer it is question
Sosna
consider two goods X and Y. When the price of Y changes from 10 to 20. The quantity demanded of X changes from 40 to 35. Calculate cross elasticity of demand for X.
Sosna
The formula for calculation income elasticity of demand is the percent change in quantity demanded divided by the percent change in income.
Sosna
what is labor productivity
Lizzy Reply

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Source:  OpenStax, Principles of economics. OpenStax CNX. Sep 19, 2014 Download for free at http://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11613/1.11
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