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Short-term movements in the business cycle and the trade balance

In the short run, trade imbalances can be affected by whether an economy is in a recession or on the upswing. A recession tends to make a trade deficit smaller, or a trade surplus larger, while a period of strong economic growth tends to make a trade deficit larger, or a trade surplus smaller.

As an example, note in [link] that the U.S. trade deficit declined by almost half from 2006 to 2009. One primary reason for this change is that during the recession, as the U.S. economy slowed down, it purchased fewer of all goods, including fewer imports from abroad. However, buying power abroad fell less, and so U.S. exports did not fall by as much.

Conversely, in the mid-2000s, when the U.S. trade deficit became very large, a contributing short-term reason is that the U.S. economy was growing. As a result, there was lots of aggressive buying in the U.S. economy, including the buying of imports. Thus, a rapidly growing domestic economy is often accompanied by a trade deficit (or a much lower trade surplus), while a slowing or recessionary domestic economy is accompanied by a trade surplus (or a much lower trade deficit).

When the trade deficit rises, it necessarily means a greater net inflow of foreign financial capital . The national saving and investment identity teaches that the rest of the economy can absorb this inflow of foreign financial capital in several different ways. For example, the additional inflow of financial capital from abroad could be offset by reduced private savings, leaving domestic investment and public saving unchanged. Alternatively, the inflow of foreign financial capital could result in higher domestic investment, leaving private and public saving unchanged. Yet another possibility is that the inflow of foreign financial capital could be absorbed by greater government borrowing, leaving domestic saving and investment unchanged. The national saving and investment identity does not specify which of these scenarios, alone or in combination, will occur—only that one of them must occur.

Key concepts and summary

The national saving and investment identity is based on the relationship that the total quantity of financial capital supplied from all sources must equal the total quantity of financial capital demanded from all sources. If S is private saving, T is taxes, G is government spending, M is imports, X is exports, and I is investment, then for an economy with a current account deficit and a budget deficit:

Supply of financial capital  =  Demand for financial capital S +  (M – X) = I +  (G – T)  
A recession tends to increase the trade balance (meaning a higher trade surplus or lower trade deficit), while economic boom will tend to decrease the trade balance (meaning a lower trade surplus or a larger trade deficit).

Problems

Imagine that the U.S. economy finds itself in the following situation: a government budget deficit of $100 billion, total domestic savings of $1,500 billion, and total domestic physical capital investment of $1,600 billion. According to the national saving and investment identity, what will be the current account balance? What will be the current account balance if investment rises by $50 billion, while the budget deficit and national savings remain the same?

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[link] provides some hypothetical data on macroeconomic accounts for three countries represented by A, B, and C and measured in billions of currency units. In [link] , private household saving is SH, tax revenue is T, government spending is G, and investment spending is I.

Macroeconomic accounts
A B C
SH 700 500 600
T 00 500 500
G 600 350 650
I 800 400 450
  1. Calculate the trade balance and the net inflow of foreign saving for each country.
  2. State whether each one has a trade surplus or deficit (or balanced trade).
  3. State whether each is a net lender or borrower internationally and explain.

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Imagine that the economy of Germany finds itself in the following situation: the government budget has a surplus of 1% of Germany’s GDP; private savings is 20% of GDP; and physical investment is 18% of GDP.

  1. Based on the national saving and investment identity, what is the current account balance?
  2. If the government budget surplus falls to zero, how will this affect the current account balance?

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Questions & Answers

what is demand
Oforiwaa Reply
demand is the quantity of a good that consumers are willing and able to purchase at various prices during a given period of time.
Modest
what is opportunity cost
Aboubakar Reply
what is gini coefficient?
Khalipha Reply
Never heard of that!!!!
Abdulrahmon
ive heard about it Actually i know it..
Shamamet
In that case, you have to help us.
Patrick
Another name for Absolute cost advantage
fatimah Reply
what is the difference between demand and supply
Peter Reply
what is the national income
Kamara Reply
oils and resources
Peter
it is the sum of all incomes earned by factors of production usually a year
C-Stixxs
What's current account?
Che Reply
Demand refers to goods and services that the buyer is willing and able to buy at a price over a period of time
Che
Can it be possible to have two level of comparative advantage in a country ?
Louise Reply
.no.its not possible
Asanda
Why ?
Louise
I think no possible
Sadiq
No
Nwanne
No resources are scare for a country to have a comparative advantage and it discourages external trade
C-Stixxs
each country are meant to Specialize on 1 production activities
C-Stixxs
why do oligopoly increase on the elastic segment of the demand curve
Tintswalo Reply
what is all about production possibility curve
Nice Reply
help me about the assumption of possibility curve
Nice
-The quantity and quality of economic resources are fixed. -only two types of goods can be produce out of this resources (that is,producer and consumer goods). -Resources are fully utilised. -The resources are mobile. -The state of technology is constant.
Louise
What is utility
chisom Reply
it is the satisfaction derived from d consumption of goods and services
C-Stixxs
what is opportunity cost
Aboubakar
what is the meaning of money and inflation
Tinuke Reply
Money can be define as anything acceptable as a medium of exchange and mean of payment
Cynthia
inflation is when everything seemed to cost so much less
Nwanne
Inflation is d persistent rise in level of goods and services in a country
C-Stixxs
Inflation is the persistent increase in d general price level of goods n services
C-Stixxs
what is a bar chart
Godwin Reply
what's economic
John Reply
Economics can be define as a study of how human beings make decisions in the face of scarcity it can also be define as using one wealth to make more wealth
Cynthia
Or in Nigerian way Economics is a science (social science) which studies human behavior as a relationship between Ends and Scarce which have alternative uses
Cynthia
Economics is the study of how human make decision in the face of scarcity
Nwanne
what is the meaning of imperfect market structure
Hoyindamolah Reply
the theroy of demand
Tinuke

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Source:  OpenStax, Principles of economics. OpenStax CNX. Sep 19, 2014 Download for free at http://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11613/1.11
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