<< Chapter < Page Chapter >> Page >

Short-term movements in the business cycle and the trade balance

In the short run, trade imbalances can be affected by whether an economy is in a recession or on the upswing. A recession tends to make a trade deficit smaller, or a trade surplus larger, while a period of strong economic growth tends to make a trade deficit larger, or a trade surplus smaller.

As an example, note in [link] that the U.S. trade deficit declined by almost half from 2006 to 2009. One primary reason for this change is that during the recession, as the U.S. economy slowed down, it purchased fewer of all goods, including fewer imports from abroad. However, buying power abroad fell less, and so U.S. exports did not fall by as much.

Conversely, in the mid-2000s, when the U.S. trade deficit became very large, a contributing short-term reason is that the U.S. economy was growing. As a result, there was lots of aggressive buying in the U.S. economy, including the buying of imports. Thus, a rapidly growing domestic economy is often accompanied by a trade deficit (or a much lower trade surplus), while a slowing or recessionary domestic economy is accompanied by a trade surplus (or a much lower trade deficit).

When the trade deficit rises, it necessarily means a greater net inflow of foreign financial capital . The national saving and investment identity teaches that the rest of the economy can absorb this inflow of foreign financial capital in several different ways. For example, the additional inflow of financial capital from abroad could be offset by reduced private savings, leaving domestic investment and public saving unchanged. Alternatively, the inflow of foreign financial capital could result in higher domestic investment, leaving private and public saving unchanged. Yet another possibility is that the inflow of foreign financial capital could be absorbed by greater government borrowing, leaving domestic saving and investment unchanged. The national saving and investment identity does not specify which of these scenarios, alone or in combination, will occur—only that one of them must occur.

Key concepts and summary

The national saving and investment identity is based on the relationship that the total quantity of financial capital supplied from all sources must equal the total quantity of financial capital demanded from all sources. If S is private saving, T is taxes, G is government spending, M is imports, X is exports, and I is investment, then for an economy with a current account deficit and a budget deficit:

Supply of financial capital  =  Demand for financial capital S +  (M – X) = I +  (G – T)  
A recession tends to increase the trade balance (meaning a higher trade surplus or lower trade deficit), while economic boom will tend to decrease the trade balance (meaning a lower trade surplus or a larger trade deficit).

Problems

Imagine that the U.S. economy finds itself in the following situation: a government budget deficit of $100 billion, total domestic savings of $1,500 billion, and total domestic physical capital investment of $1,600 billion. According to the national saving and investment identity, what will be the current account balance? What will be the current account balance if investment rises by $50 billion, while the budget deficit and national savings remain the same?

Got questions? Get instant answers now!

[link] provides some hypothetical data on macroeconomic accounts for three countries represented by A, B, and C and measured in billions of currency units. In [link] , private household saving is SH, tax revenue is T, government spending is G, and investment spending is I.

Macroeconomic accounts
A B C
SH 700 500 600
T 00 500 500
G 600 350 650
I 800 400 450
  1. Calculate the trade balance and the net inflow of foreign saving for each country.
  2. State whether each one has a trade surplus or deficit (or balanced trade).
  3. State whether each is a net lender or borrower internationally and explain.

Got questions? Get instant answers now!

Imagine that the economy of Germany finds itself in the following situation: the government budget has a surplus of 1% of Germany’s GDP; private savings is 20% of GDP; and physical investment is 18% of GDP.

  1. Based on the national saving and investment identity, what is the current account balance?
  2. If the government budget surplus falls to zero, how will this affect the current account balance?

Got questions? Get instant answers now!

Questions & Answers

what us maxima and minima
MiXUP Reply
Maxima s below equilibrium. Whilst minima s above. Equilibrium
Afran
Wht is demand
Afran
is the willingness and the ability of a consumer to purchase goods at a given price and at a particular point in time.
Assan
Ohhk different question? Ask
Afran
why is the demand curve downwards sloppy?
Assan
3 Reasons.. 1... diminishing marginal utility 2... substitution effect 3...income effect
Harshita
thanks
Assan
Because of the negative or inverse relationship between price and quantity demanded
Afran
what is the law of diminishing returns states?
Assan
ohk
Assan
The law states that all other things being equall as much of variable factor(labour) is employed on fixed factor(land) the marginal product rises..attain a maximum and begins to fall.
Afran
What is income elasticity of demand
Afran
what is monetary policy
Edward
Monetary policy is an attempt to influence the economy by opera ting in such monetary variables
Afran
thanks
Edward
Wlcm
Afran
Wht is disutility?
Afran
is disutility? is rightly writing?
Yhlas
is it i wanna say
Yhlas
Yes please Disutility
Afran
what is macro economics?
Oyas
the branch of economics concerned with large-scale or general economic factors, such as interest rates and national productivity.
idk
in other words it is the study of the economic as a whole
idk
What is an Economic growth
Ayumo Reply
Economic growth is the process whereby the real per capita income of an economy increases over a long period of time.
Nureni
what is the generally accepted defination of economics and by who
IDY Reply
Economics is defined by Lionel Robbins as a social science which studies human behaviour as a relationship between ends and scarce means which have alternative uses
Tba
Importance of economic
Achike Reply
Helps in decision making
MP
I need like 5 importance
Achike
hi
Physcal
Hey
Muhammad
hellow dear.
juwel
hello
Al-ameen
Hello
MP
it helps an individual in rational decision making process
Assan
Fine and u
Buzabaryaho
how does it make individual in rational dicision making decisions
Annor
if an individual is faced with unlimited wants.
Assan
it also helps an individual in arranging their wants in order of their importance.
Assan
ohk
Annor
ok
Al-ameen
Hello guys
Radah
My name is Radah
Radah
Please what is a scale of preference used for?
Radah
it's use for arranging wants in order of their importance.
Assan
in other words when an individual is faced with unlimited wants,scale of preference would help the individual to select the most important wants.
Assan
Thanks
Radah
welcome
Assan
what is tourism
forgive Reply
Tourism is travel for pleasure or business
Yusuf
It is the commercial organization and operation of holidays and visits to places of interest.
Nureni
who is a price taker?
sam Reply
A price taker is a person or a company who have no control to dictate a prices of a goods or services
Unique
Someone who sets price
Nureni
In the trading world, a price taker is a trader who does not affect the price of the stock if he or she buys or sells shares.
Nureni
A price taker refers to a firm or an individual who sets the price of his good and services based on an external factor. In other words he cannot choose and set a price by himself. An example is a firm operating in perfect competition where prices are set through the price mechanism.
Tba
in a common and suitable sense state the law of diminishing returns
Unique Reply
The higher the satisfaction derived from a particular commodity,the lower the demand for it but that law doesn't match in some instances.
Nureni
state the features of an imperfect competitive market
Naomi
@NURENI instance like wat
Unique
imperfect competitive market involves large number of sellers and buyers price makers selling cost product differentiation free entry and exit of a firms
Unique
is economics a science
Alex Reply
yes. a social science.
Carlos
Yes of cause It uses scientific principles in its research. That is to say, analyzing data, making experiment as well as making deductions and drawing conclusions
Aziz
U can understand the scientific nature of economics by learning about the methods used by Abhijit Banerjee(indian) ,the nobel prize laureate 2019.
Harshita
it is considered as a social science
idk
Hence, economics is a science, a social science many can call it, or more appropriately, a young science
Taha
it can be called social science because of behaviour ,which is unpredictable.There r many theroies in economics which make economics a social science But some economic theories makes it science
Harshita
human behaviour*
Harshita
remember science derives from the root words "to know". With that being said most fields of study can be considered as a science or soft science, for they possess key knowledge to attaining understanding of our world.
Alexander
economics is a science cos it deals with human wants, desire or neads in order to satisfy them
Unique
according comparision of political science economic is science.
Hassan
what's the question?
Nureni Reply
Discuss economics system
Henry Reply
discuss institutional system
Henry
Give 3 at most advantages and disadvantages of economics system and institutional syatem
Henry
Give the features characteristics of market or free enterprise
Henry
The structure of an economy is largely determined by the economic system which is a function of the economic ideology of the nation
Nureni
The economic system is grouped into 5 groups: 1: Pure market 2: Developed market 3: Centrally planned or Socialist 4: Mixed market and 5: Market Socialist Economic systems
Nureni
what is inflation
Prince Reply
Inflation is a sustained and general rise in the price of all goods and services of an economy
Tba
hello everyone , I'm New here, third degree price discrimination?
Saeed Reply
2nd degree price discrimination?
Saeed
hi
Kini
hi
Mitchel
Hi
MP
price paid by consumers after the sales tax is called?
Pinias Reply
why government impose price floor on certain products?
Pinias
how can black market be occurred when price ceiling is introduced?
Pinias
How can inflation affect goods and services?
Ph
When prices rise for energy, food, commodities, and other goods and services, the entire economy is affected
Joan
If inflation becomes too high the economy can suffer conversely, if inflation is controlled and at reasonable levels, the economy may prosper. With controlled, lower inflation, employment increases.
Joan
Is it necessary to make decision when it fails you
Evelin Reply
Pls when what fails u
MP
I think so
Kini
well i might naught know what you on about but i gotta tell you, it is necessary
Troy
yep
Ibe
Kk
MP
yep
Ibe
how can the demand side approach solve unemployment
Tshepiso Reply
demand solves unemployment when it is addressed with supply you can't just expect demand to work alone without supply the two are interconnected
Nureni
You have to apply the concept of aggregate demand
Tba
That is apply demand side policies to boost aggregate demand hence increasing need for labour and decreasing unemployment(more people get jobs)
Tba

Get the best Principles of economics course in your pocket!





Source:  OpenStax, Principles of economics. OpenStax CNX. Sep 19, 2014 Download for free at http://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11613/1.11
Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google Inc.

Notification Switch

Would you like to follow the 'Principles of economics' conversation and receive update notifications?

Ask