<< Chapter < Page Chapter >> Page >

From budget deficits to international economic crisis

The economic story of how an outflow of international financial capital can cause a deep recession is laid out, step-by-step, in the Exchange Rates and International Capital Flows chapter. When international financial investors decide to withdraw their funds from a country like Turkey, they increase the supply of the Turkish lira and reduce the demand for lira, depreciating the lira exchange rate. When firms and the government in a country like Turkey borrow money in international financial markets, they typically do so in stages. First, banks in Turkey borrow in a widely used currency like U.S. dollars or euros, then convert those U.S. dollars to lira, and then lend the money to borrowers in Turkey. If the value of the lira exchange rate depreciates, then Turkey’s banks will find it impossible to repay the international loans that are in U.S. dollars or euros.

The combination of less foreign investment capital and banks that are bankrupt can sharply reduce aggregate demand, which causes a deep recession    . Many countries around the world have experienced this kind of recession in recent years: along with Turkey in 2002, this general pattern was followed by Mexico in 1995, Thailand and countries across East Asia in 1997–1998, Russia in 1998, and Argentina in 2002. In many of these countries, large government budget deficits played a role in setting the stage for the financial crisis. A moderate increase in a budget deficit that leads to a moderate increase in a trade deficit and a moderate appreciation of the exchange rate is not necessarily a cause for concern. But beyond some point that is hard to define in advance, a series of large budget deficits can become a cause for concern among international investors.

One reason for concern is that extremely large budget deficits mean that aggregate demand may shift so far to the right as to cause high inflation. The example of Turkey is a situation where very large budget deficits brought inflation rates well into double digits. In addition, very large budget deficits at some point begin to raise a fear that the borrowing will not be repaid. In the last 175 years, the government of Turkey has been unable to pay its debts and defaulted on its loans six times. Brazil’s government has been unable to pay its debts and defaulted on its loans seven times; Venezuela, nine times; and Argentina, five times. The risk of high inflation or a default on repaying international loans will worry international investors, since both factors imply that the rate of return on their investments in that country may end up lower than expected. If international investors start withdrawing the funds from a country rapidly, the scenario of less investment, a depreciated exchange rate, widespread bank failure, and deep recession can occur. The following Clear It Up feature explains other impacts of large deficits.

What are the risks of chronic large deficits in the united states?

If a government runs large budget deficits for a sustained period of time, what can go wrong? According to a recent report by the Brookings Institution, a key risk of a large budget deficit is that government debt may grow too high compared to the country’s GDP growth. As debt grows, the national savings rate will decline, leaving less available in financial capital for private investment. The impact of chronically large budget deficits is as follows:

  • As the population ages, there will be an increasing demand for government services that may cause higher government deficits. Government borrowing and its interest payments will pull resources away from domestic investment in human capital and physical capital that is essential to economic growth.
  • Interest rates may start to rise so that the cost of financing government debt will rise as well, creating pressure on the government to reduce its budget deficits through spending cuts and tax increases. These steps will be politically painful, and they will also have a contractionary effect on aggregate demand in the economy.
  • Rising percentage of debt to GDP will create uncertainty in the financial and global markets that might cause a country to resort to inflationary tactics to reduce the real value of the debt outstanding. This will decrease real wealth and damage confidence in the country’s ability to manage its spending. After all, if the government has borrowed at a fixed interest rate of, say, 5%, and it lets inflation rise above that 5%, then it will effectively be able to repay its debt at a negative real interest rate.

The conventional reasoning suggests that the relationship between sustained deficits that lead to high levels of government debt and long-term growth is negative. How significant this relationship is, how big an issue it is compared to other macroeconomic issues, and the direction of causality, is less clear.

What remains important to acknowledge is that the relationship between debt and growth is negative and that for some countries, the relationship may be stronger than in others. It is also important to acknowledge the direction of causality: does high debt cause slow growth, slow growth cause high debt, or are both high debt and slow growth the result of third factors? In our analysis, we have argued simply that high debt causes slow growth. There may be more to this debate than we have space to discuss here.

Questions & Answers

What is an indifference curve?
layla Reply
different levels of utilities of a person in a given set of bundles of goods
RAM
identify and quantify five social costs and social benefits of building a school
Mokgobo Reply
identify and quantity five social costs and social benefits of building a hospital
Mokgobo
short run vs long run
Jean
is it true that the opportunity cost of unemployed labour is zero?
Wisdom Reply
no
Oigebe
give two forms of collusion
nondumiso Reply
1.Explicit Collusion: Also termed overt collusion, this occurs when two or more firms in the same industry formally agree to control the market .
Gafar
2.Implicit Collusion: Also termed tacit collusion, this occurs when two or more firms in the same industry informally agree to control the market, often through nothing more than interdependent actions. A prime example of implicit collusion is price leadership .
Gafar
explicit collusion: this occurs when two or more firms in the same industry legally agree to control the market
Panashe
implicit collusion this occurs when two or more firms in the same industry illegally agree to control the market
Panashe
what is responsible for investigating cases of collusion
nondumiso
reasons why a country maybe involved in international trade
Nde Reply
state five similarities and differences between money market and capital market
Victoria Reply
Give a Zimbabwean example of firms operating in an oligopoly market and illustrate using diagrams how a manager in such a market maximize profit
Pam Reply
what is an industry
EWAH Reply
An industry is the production of goods and related services within an economy
Prabhu
an industry is place where goods and services are produced for human consumption....
Usman
scarcity is the major course of economics problems. discuss
Abdulhameed Reply
please say about that it is interesting for us
Abayneh
what is economics
Michael Reply
economics is a social sciences that deals with the production distribution and consumption of goods and services produced.its study of behaviour between economic agents
rkesh
what is the formula for elasticity of demand
Ridwan
change in demand/change in variable variable may be price, income,
rkesh
seasonal unemployment
Enoch Reply
example agriculture
lungku
want and scarcity
Prince
why the average of revenue AR fun
Abba
What is monopoli
Gadrey Reply
What is monopoly
Gadrey
monopoly
Hanan
monipoly ..where one firm controls all the market
RAM
what is demand
Jafar Reply
demand is what one willing and enable to purchase at a given price over period of a time.
Micheal
what is marginal revenue
just
distinguish between commercialization and industrialization
Alhassan Reply
why division of labour increase economy level of production
Henry Reply

Get the best Principles of economics course in your pocket!





Source:  OpenStax, Principles of economics. OpenStax CNX. Sep 19, 2014 Download for free at http://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11613/1.11
Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google Inc.

Notification Switch

Would you like to follow the 'Principles of economics' conversation and receive update notifications?

Ask