<< Chapter < Page Chapter >> Page >

Budget deficits and exchange rates

Exchange rates can also help to explain why budget deficits are linked to trade deficits. [link] shows a situation using the exchange rate    for the U.S. dollar, measured in euros. At the original equilibrium (E 0 ), where the demand for U.S. dollars (D 0 ) intersects with the supply of U.S. dollars (S 0 ) on the foreign exchange market, the exchange rate is 0.9 euros per U.S. dollar and the equilibrium quantity traded in the market is $100 billion per day (which was roughly the quantity of dollar–euro trading in exchange rate markets in the mid-2000s). Then the U.S. budget deficit rises and foreign financial investment provides the source of funds for that budget deficit.

International financial investors, as a group, will demand more U.S. dollars on foreign exchange markets to purchase the U.S. government bonds, and they will supply fewer of the U.S. dollars that they already hold in these markets. Demand for U.S. dollars on the foreign exchange market shifts from D 0 to D 1 and the supply of U.S. dollars falls from S 0 to S 1 . At the new equilibrium (E 1 ), the exchange rate has appreciated to 1.05 euros per dollar while, in this example, the quantity of dollars traded remains the same.

Budget deficits and exchange rates

This graph shows the demand and supply of foreign currency. The y-axis shows the euro/U.S. dollar exchange rate and the x-axis shows the quantity of dollars traded. As explained in the text, a budget deficit raises the demand for dollars (and lowers the supply of dollars) because foreign investors want to purchase U.S. government debt. The result is a stronger exchange rate.
Imagine that the U.S. government increases its borrowing and the funds come from European financial investors. To purchase U.S. government bonds, those European investors will need to demand more U.S. dollars on foreign exchange markets, causing the demand for U.S. dollars to shift to the right from D 0 to D 1 . European financial investors as a group will also be less likely to supply U.S. dollars to the foreign exchange markets, causing the supply of U.S. dollars to shift from S 0 to S 1 . The equilibrium exchange rate strengthens from 0.9 euro/ dollar at E 0 to 1.05 euros/dollar at E 1 .

A stronger exchange rate, of course, makes it more difficult for exporters to sell their goods abroad while making imports cheaper, so a trade deficit (or a reduced trade surplus) results. Thus, a budget deficit can easily result in an inflow of foreign financial capital, a stronger exchange rate, and a trade deficit.

You can also imagine this appreciation of the exchange rate as being driven by interest rates. As explained earlier in Budget Deficits and Interest Rates in Fiscal Policy, Investment, and Economic Growth , a budget deficit increases demand in markets for domestic financial capital, raising the domestic interest rate. A higher interest rate will attract an inflow of foreign financial capital, and appreciate the exchange rate in response to the increase in demand for U.S. dollars by foreign investors and a decrease in supply of U. S. dollars. Because of higher interest rates in the United States, Americans find U.S. bonds more attractive than foreign bonds. When Americans are buying fewer foreign bonds, they are supplying fewer U.S. dollars. The depreciation of the U.S. dollar leads to a larger trade deficit (or reduced surplus). The connections between inflows of foreign investment capital, interest rates, and exchange rates are all just different ways of drawing the same economic connections: a larger budget deficit can result in a larger trade deficit, although the connection should not be expected to be one-to-one.

Questions & Answers

what is economics
reekado Reply
definition of economics according to different scholars
Onesmo Reply
Economics is a science that studies human behavior as a relationship between end and scarce means which have alternative uses:by Davern spot
Dora
am I correct?
Dora
reason why we study economics
Moruf Reply
what is economics
Tutu Reply
economics is defined as the science which studies human behavior as a relationship between ends and scarce means which have alternative uses.
Semiat
what is a gross domestic product
Amogelang Reply
Explain what is a production possibility curve
Sharon Reply
A curve that indicates the various production possibilities of two commodities when resources are fixed...
Geoffrey
what is market?
Jasmin Reply
ware the Byers and seller's that please is called market
suresh
a place where buyers and sellers meet
Tariro
I don't like this market definition.
Jasmin
market is any arrangement whereby buyers and sellers are brought together for the purpose of transacting business. It could be a geographical location or any other means such as internet, mobile phone etc. as long as buyers and sellers are brought together for the purpose of exchange.
Agusimba
A market is a place where buyers and sellers buy and sell goods through bargaining.
Jasmin
yes ,you are correct Agusimba sir.
Jasmin
exception of the low of demond
Rohit Reply
short run AC curves?
Jasmin Reply
you mean shirt run cost curves?
REBECCA
A short-run cost curve shows the minimum cost impact of output changes for a specific plant size and in a given operating environment. Such curves reflect the optimal or least-cost input combination for producing output under fixed circumstances.
REBECCA
nooo am not from India why!?
Godwin Reply
Godwin which level of education are you please
Millionaires
millionaires am in SHS 2
Godwin
who was the father of economic ?why?
Mahesh Reply
Rationing and hoarding
Semiat Reply
how do the size of a country's population affect labour force
Evans Reply
a mixed economic system
Ngong Reply
What are the types of price elasticity of demand
Juliana Reply
what are massures to promote geographical mobility of labor?
Ngong
Is to make sure that a labourer to know more about his salary to earn before going to the direction
shehu
types of Price elasticity of demand are fairly elastic demand, fairly inelastic demand, unity demand, perfectly elastic demand and perfectly inelastic demand.
Semiat

Get the best Principles of economics course in your pocket!





Source:  OpenStax, Principles of economics. OpenStax CNX. Sep 19, 2014 Download for free at http://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11613/1.11
Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google Inc.

Notification Switch

Would you like to follow the 'Principles of economics' conversation and receive update notifications?

Ask