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Short-term movements in the business cycle and the trade balance

In the short run, trade imbalances can be affected by whether an economy is in a recession or on the upswing. A recession tends to make a trade deficit smaller, or a trade surplus larger, while a period of strong economic growth tends to make a trade deficit larger, or a trade surplus smaller.

As an example, note in [link] that the U.S. trade deficit declined by almost half from 2006 to 2009. One primary reason for this change is that during the recession, as the U.S. economy slowed down, it purchased fewer of all goods, including fewer imports from abroad. However, buying power abroad fell less, and so U.S. exports did not fall by as much.

Conversely, in the mid-2000s, when the U.S. trade deficit became very large, a contributing short-term reason is that the U.S. economy was growing. As a result, there was lots of aggressive buying in the U.S. economy, including the buying of imports. Thus, a rapidly growing domestic economy is often accompanied by a trade deficit (or a much lower trade surplus), while a slowing or recessionary domestic economy is accompanied by a trade surplus (or a much lower trade deficit).

When the trade deficit rises, it necessarily means a greater net inflow of foreign financial capital . The national saving and investment identity teaches that the rest of the economy can absorb this inflow of foreign financial capital in several different ways. For example, the additional inflow of financial capital from abroad could be offset by reduced private savings, leaving domestic investment and public saving unchanged. Alternatively, the inflow of foreign financial capital could result in higher domestic investment, leaving private and public saving unchanged. Yet another possibility is that the inflow of foreign financial capital could be absorbed by greater government borrowing, leaving domestic saving and investment unchanged. The national saving and investment identity does not specify which of these scenarios, alone or in combination, will occur—only that one of them must occur.

Key concepts and summary

The national saving and investment identity is based on the relationship that the total quantity of financial capital supplied from all sources must equal the total quantity of financial capital demanded from all sources. If S is private saving, T is taxes, G is government spending, M is imports, X is exports, and I is investment, then for an economy with a current account deficit and a budget deficit:

Supply of financial capital  =  Demand for financial capital S +  (M – X) = I +  (G – T)  
A recession tends to increase the trade balance (meaning a higher trade surplus or lower trade deficit), while economic boom will tend to decrease the trade balance (meaning a lower trade surplus or a larger trade deficit).

Problems

Imagine that the U.S. economy finds itself in the following situation: a government budget deficit of $100 billion, total domestic savings of $1,500 billion, and total domestic physical capital investment of $1,600 billion. According to the national saving and investment identity, what will be the current account balance? What will be the current account balance if investment rises by $50 billion, while the budget deficit and national savings remain the same?

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[link] provides some hypothetical data on macroeconomic accounts for three countries represented by A, B, and C and measured in billions of currency units. In [link] , private household saving is SH, tax revenue is T, government spending is G, and investment spending is I.

Macroeconomic accounts
A B C
SH 700 500 600
T 00 500 500
G 600 350 650
I 800 400 450
  1. Calculate the trade balance and the net inflow of foreign saving for each country.
  2. State whether each one has a trade surplus or deficit (or balanced trade).
  3. State whether each is a net lender or borrower internationally and explain.

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Imagine that the economy of Germany finds itself in the following situation: the government budget has a surplus of 1% of Germany’s GDP; private savings is 20% of GDP; and physical investment is 18% of GDP.

  1. Based on the national saving and investment identity, what is the current account balance?
  2. If the government budget surplus falls to zero, how will this affect the current account balance?

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Questions & Answers

how environment affect demand and supply of commodity ?
Amos Reply
Wht at the criteria for market ?
Amos
what is difference between monitory policy and fiscal policy?
Malik Reply
monetary policy is a policy thrust by National Govt(CBN) to influence government spending, purchase &taxes
Frank
necessity of economics
Pamela Reply
I will say want,choice,opportunity cost,scarcity,scale of preference
Alao
what is monopoly market.How price output are determined under monopoly market
bisham
b) Monopoly market is an impecfect market where s single firm having the innovation to produce a particular commodity.Prices are determined through output since there are no other competitive.
Frank
Monopoly market:firm has market power & does not respond to market price
Frank
Explain the process of price determination under perfect competition market with suitable diagram
bisham Reply
Price determination under perfect competition via this process :firms have no market power to influence price rather firms respond to market price.
Frank
price is different from demand- demand is amount of commodity
Effah Reply
demand is amount /quantity of commodity a potential buyer is willing to buy at a given price at market
Frank
demand is a desire of customer on commodity with the ability to pay it and willing to buy it at given price of commodity
Harika
demand is price of what
Faith Reply
show that shortrun average cost
Baby Reply
what is economics
Mbah Reply
what is money
Mbah
what is money
Mbah
Difine macro economics
agaba
money is a medium of exchange between goods and services,maybe inform of currency.
Wesonga
Economics is study of how human beings strive to satisfy numerous wants using limited available resources.
Wesonga
how do you find the maximum number of workers the firms should employ order to produce where there are increasing returns
Jane
what are implications of computing national income?.
agaba
pl
MUDASIRU
what is the formulae for calculating national income
MUDASIRU
it calculated by value added method
Praveen
classify the production units like agriculture, banking, transport etc
Praveen
money is anything that is generally acceptetable for human
Ogbaji
Estimate the net value added(NVA) at fixed cost by each industrial structure
Praveen
definition of unemployment
Adam Reply
what are the causes of unemployment?
Mbubi Reply
The main causes of unemployment are listed below. 1. Frictional unemployment 2. Cyclical unemployment 3. Structural unemployment
assani
We can also categorize the causes on a broader sense as: 1. Political and 2. Social cause As unemployeement root causes are embaded in this two.
Yonathan
would opportunity cost exist if there was no scarcity?
assani
yes just because the opportunity cost arose when there is Alternative to choose among the alternatives.
BADAMASIU
I am thinking that, if our resources were unlimited, then there wouldn't be any need to forgo some wants. Hence the inexistence if opportunity cost
assani
Politics
Job
politics has done what?
assani
consider time assani
Mary
I'm Emmanuel,...I taught the main cause is the change in gov't.
Emmanuel
...Lack of capital to set up a firm respectively
Emmanuel
🙈
Emmanuel
I would like to bring in Educational levels can also be the cause the cause of the problem respectively
Emmanuel
I think the main causes of unemployment is lack of INFRASTRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT OVER POPULATION OVER DEPENDENT ON GOVERNMENT LACK OF SELF EMPOWERMENT...
ananti
lack of skills among the new generation is the serious issue.
Vishal
Where I come from , I don't see why education or personal aspects seem to do with unimployment, technically the motivation and eigerness in all works of live is there , dispite the cultural influence and physical bearriors;the thing we lacking is Government Support and open market ethics.
Joe
sorry about that-(repation). We have a over powering ethical political system that's displacing the marketing asspects of economy and causing large scale unemployment right across the board...
Joe
can someone Explain Expansionary Monetary Policy and Contractionary Monetary Policy Using one of the instrument of Monetary Policy? Please am kinda lost here?. ta
Emmanuel Reply
using a graph show the case of substitute and compliment goods
Ade Reply
can anyone give me a simple explanation to Five Sector Macroeconomics?
Emmanuel
Can someone please define what economics is
jason Reply
economics simply is a social science subject that study human behavior.
dajan
economics is a social science which studies human behaviour as a relationship between ends and scarce means that has alternative uses
Alao
Can someone please tell me how to calculate GDP
Emmanuel
emmanual kapal to calculate GDP (Gross Domestic Product) has three method in calculating it (1)income approach (2) expenditure approach (3) value added method
Alao
thanks Alae
Emmanuel
u are welcome
Alao
in basic terms economics is revered to as battery system, it date back to when Men sees the need to exchange sapless goods and produce to gain , either wealth , basic necessities or to establish trading ties for personal benefit or social asspects in terms of coexistence and continuity, future .
Joe
what is the law of demand
Berlinda Reply
keep other thing constant, when the price increases demand decrease when the price decreases demand increases of the commodity.
sj
all things being equal,quantity demanded decrease as price increase and increase as price decrease
Seth
there's practial joke to it ..." the higher the demand ; scarcity, increase in production and drop in quality"... quite the controversy - for example China vs Europe, United States and we are all boxed up in between somewhere...
Joe
Other thing remain constant the low price of commodity the high quantity of commodity and vice versa is true
Baraka
Explain Effective demand
Anita Reply
What is effective demand
Anita
like Modi is in demand...best example of effective demand
Pranav
Don't get you
Anita
Anita you mean you don't get me or who?
Onyeking
level of demand that represents a real intention to purchase by people with the means to pay
Pranav

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Source:  OpenStax, Principles of economics. OpenStax CNX. Sep 19, 2014 Download for free at http://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11613/1.11
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