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The power of sustained economic growth

Nothing is more important for people’s standard of living than sustained economic growth. Even small changes in the rate of growth, when sustained and compounded over long periods of time, make an enormous difference in the standard of living. Consider [link] , in which the rows of the table show several different rates of growth in GDP per capita and the columns show different periods of time. Assume for simplicity that an economy starts with a GDP per capita of 100. The table then applies the following formula to calculate what GDP will be at the given growth rate in the future:

GDP at starting date × (1 + growth rate of GDP) years  = GDP at end date

For example, an economy that starts with a GDP of 100 and grows at 3% per year will reach a GDP of 209 after 25 years; that is, 100 (1.03) 25 = 209.

The slowest rate of GDP per capita growth in the table, just 1% per year, is similar to what the United States experienced during its weakest years of productivity growth. The second highest rate, 3% per year, is close to what the U.S. economy experienced during the strong economy of the late 1990s and into the 2000s. Higher rates of per capita growth, such as 5% or 8% per year, represent the experience of rapid growth in economies like Japan, Korea, and China.

[link] shows that even a few percentage points of difference in economic growth rates will have a profound effect if sustained and compounded over time. For example, an economy growing at a 1% annual rate over 50 years will see its GDP per capita rise by a total of 64%, from 100 to 164 in this example. However, a country growing at a 5% annual rate will see (almost) the same amount of growth—from 100 to 163—over just 10 years. Rapid rates of economic growth can bring profound transformation. (See the following Clear It Up feature on the relationship between compound growth rates and compound interest rates.) If the rate of growth is 8%, young adults starting at age 20 will see the average standard of living in their country more than double by the time they reach age 30, and grow nearly sevenfold by the time they reach age 45.

Growth of gdp over different time horizons
Growth Rate Value of an original 100 in 10 Years Value of an original 100 in 25 Years Value of an original 100 in 50 Years
1% 110 128 164
3% 134 209 438
5% 163 338 1,147
8% 216 685 4,690

How are compound growth rates and compound interest rates related?

The formula for growth rates of GDP over different periods of time, as shown in [link] , is exactly the same as the formula for how a given amount of financial savings grows at a certain interest rate over time, as presented in Choice in a World of Scarcity . Both formulas have the same ingredients:

  • an original starting amount, in one case GDP and in the other case an amount of financial saving;
  • a percentage increase over time, in one case the growth rate of GDP and in the other case an interest rate;
  • and an amount of time over which this effect happens.

Recall that compound interest is interest that is earned on past interest. It causes the total amount of financial savings to grow dramatically over time. Similarly, compound rates of economic growth, or the compound growth rate    , means that the rate of growth is being multiplied by a base that includes past GDP growth, with dramatic effects over time.

For example, in 2013, the World Fact Book, produced by the Central Intelligence Agency, reported that South Korea had a GDP of $1.67 trillion with a growth rate of 2.8%. We can estimate that at that growth rate, South Korea’s GDP will be $1.92 trillion in five years. If we apply the growth rate to each year’s ending GDP for the next five years, we will calculate that at the end of year one, GDP is $1.72 trillion. In year two, we start with the end-of-year one value of $1.67 and increase it by 2%. Year three starts with the end-of-year two GDP, and we increase it by 2% and so on, as depicted in the [link] .

Year Starting GDP Growth Rate 2% Year-End Amount
1 $1.67 Trillion × (1+0.028) $1.72 Trillion
2 $1.72 Trillion × (1+0.028) $1.76 Trillion
3 $1.76 Trillion × (1+0.028) $1.81 Trillion
4 $1.81 Trillion × (1+0.028) $1.87 Trillion
5 $1.87 Trillion × (1+0.028) $1.92 Trillion

Another way to calculate the growth rate is to apply the following formula:

Future Value = Present Value × (1 + g) n

Where “future value” is the value of GDP five years hence, “present value” is the starting GDP amount of $1.64 trillion, “g” is the growth rate of 2%, and “n” is the number of periods for which we are calculating growth.

             Future Value = 1.67 × (1+0.028) 5  = $1.92 trillion

Key concepts and summary

Productivity, the value of what is produced per worker, or per hour worked, can be measured as the level of GDP per worker or GDP per hour. The United States experienced a productivity slowdown between 1973 and 1989. Since then, U.S. productivity has rebounded (the current global recession notwithstanding). It is not clear whether the current growth in productivity will be sustained. The rate of productivity growth is the primary determinant of an economy’s rate of long-term economic growth and higher wages. Over decades and generations, seemingly small differences of a few percentage points in the annual rate of economic growth make an enormous difference in GDP per capita. An aggregate production function specifies how certain inputs in the economy, like human capital, physical capital, and technology, lead to the output measured as GDP per capita.

Compound interest and compound growth rates behave in the same way as productivity rates. Seemingly small changes in percentage points can have big impacts on income over time.

Problems

An economy starts off with a GDP per capita of $5,000. How large will the GDP per capita be if it grows at an annual rate of 2% for 20 years? 2% for 40 years? 4% for 40 years? 6% for 40 years?

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An economy starts off with a GDP per capita of 12,000 euros. How large will the GDP per capita be if it grows at an annual rate of 3% for 10 years? 3% for 30 years? 6% for 30 years?

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Say that the average worker in Canada has a productivity level of $30 per hour while the average worker in the United Kingdom has a productivity level of $25 per hour (both measured in U.S. dollars). Over the next five years, say that worker productivity in Canada grows at 1% per year while worker productivity in the UK grows 3% per year. After five years, who will have the higher productivity level, and by how much?

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Say that the average worker in the U.S. economy is eight times as productive as an average worker in Mexico. If the productivity of U.S. workers grows at 2% for 25 years and the productivity of Mexico’s workers grows at 6% for 25 years, which country will have higher worker productivity at that point?

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Questions & Answers

what is scarcity
Wireko Reply
what are some the problems of scarcity
Wireko
The economic problem of sacrtiy only be solved if there is an economic efficiency
Shoaib
inflation
Suleman
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Okwori
Scarcity is an economic good that is limited in supply.
tomi
inflation
Spark
who is the father of economics
Acquah Reply
Adam Smith...
Chris
adam smith father of modern economics alfred Marshall father of micro economics john Maynard Keynes father of macro economics
vinay
Adam smith
Esther
Adam smith is the father of classical economics.
yusuf
david recardo
Tariku
Admin smith
Shoaib
The economic field existed because of the limited resources and unlimited human wants. why is it so?
Eliud Reply
state the law of diminish return
Abobarin
the law of diminishing returns states that every additional increase in the variable factor of production, keeping other factors fixed, will eventually reach a point were returns will diminish with every successive unit of factor added.
Hamna
who is the father of Ethiopian Economics?
Tariku
the system of economics
molos Reply
what is economics system
molos
is an arrangement for managing the relatively scarce resources in a particular place and at a particular time
Samuel
but also allocate resources equally ?
Furkan
economic is the study of what
Abba
Economics is a science which studies humam behaviour as a relationship between ends and scarce means which have alternate uses
Samuel
what is the law of equilibrium.
Henry Reply
The law of equilibrium states that when the demand of a commodity is equal to the supply
Stanley
what is demand curve
Gift
demand carve is a graphical representation of the relationship between the price of the or the service and the quantity demanded for a given period of time
Adamsvictor
Is the graphical representation of demand schedule. Also it has negative slope
Abubakary
The law of equilibrium is state that the quantity demand are equal to quantity supply.
Abubakary
sometimes demand exceeds supply or vice versa .In the first situation prices tend to rise therefore supply and demand meet the balance point called as equilibrium .
Furkan
the point of intersection mathematically but this is just an assumption that all other variables remain equal
Deleon
when there is excess supply and demand it means there is forces acting upon the equilibrium and prices should be decreased or increased appropriately
Deleon
The law of equilibrium states that ceteris paribus, at a certain two variables will be equal to each other.
Sessay
The difference between cyclical unemployment and structural unemployment
Prince Reply
Cyclical unemployment .it has to do with an increase in the quantity of good demanded or there is over production which result in fall in prices. Industries will be affected it will now causes retrenchment of workers in the industries while structural unemployment arises as a result of slight change
Adeoti
In the industrial structure of a countries workers wil now be retren
Adeoti
Will now be retrenched as a result of economic recession... That is the little i knw....
Adeoti
what is the condition of a consumer behaviour in the equilibrium under the theory of consumer behaviour
Sahr Reply
what is equilibrium
Sahr
A point where quantity demand & supply meets called equilibrium
Hasham
a state is said to be equilibrium when there is no tendency of movement.
Nibedita
Pls @Nibedita am confused
Prince
The state of balance achieved by an end user of products that refers to the amount of goods and services they can purchase given their present level of income and the current level of prices. Consumer equilibrium allows a consumer to obtain the most satisfaction possible from their income.
Okwori
where is the calculations?
Nathan Reply
what are the two conditions for aconsumer to be in the equilibrium under the theory of consumer behaviour in
Sahr
Economic equilibrium is a condition or state in which economic forces are balanced. In effect, economic variables remain unchanged from their equilibrium values in the absence of external influences. Economic equilibrium may also be defined as the point at which supply equals demand for a product,
vinay
Hello there, let's make a time to chat about econimics and its issues.
DA Reply
it's true
Adamsvictor
hie Sir /Madam l need help when it comes to Economics lm doing it for the first time
Thembelani
So, share your problems that you have in terms of economis and we will discuss on it.
DA
Basic Economic problems
Thembelani
what is the Basic Economic problem
Thembelani
what is the Basic Economic problem
Thembelani Reply
scarcity
Rhaiymornd
a bit of explanation please its my first year doing Economics
Thembelani
rare, limited. economic agents eg You dube, the govt & the business entities wants to maximise their utility/satisfaction but because limited resource or scarcity of such resources they are unable to satisfy their needs.
ian
thank u Sir , l understand what you are saying now
Thembelani
limited resources; you wanna take the most benefits from the minimum resource.
DA
if u ar a fresher, eco has to 2 fundamental parts "micro & macro". micro(small) this is were the economc agents ar discussd, economc systms, dmand & supply, typs of market systms etc and the macro (big) part the elucidates the functns of central bank, typs of employmnt, functns of money & int trade.
ian
there is an old adage that says "a picture is worth a thousand words" economics is full of graphing so it requires on the side of the student to master the art of keeping information in form graphs.
ian
oky Sir
Thembelani
scarcity becomes the fundamental problem of economics because of limited resources, when we take an individual, he or she has many wants, thus unlimited wants but can never satisfy all but only few.
Rhaiymornd
now when we take a firm, a firm maybe willing to produce two or more product into the market but due to limited resources they only produce one. the same way if we take the government, he or she maybe willing to bring development either through infrastructures,
Rhaiymornd
that is when consumer decision making rule comes in
Olusegun
choice arises as a result of scarcity of resources
Olusegun
so if we look through, the individual, firm and government, their wants are unlimited but due limited resources, all of their wants cannot be satisfy. therefore scarcity can be term as limited in supply of resources. scarcity is not lack of resources but insufficient resources
Rhaiymornd
there is a marriage with the following; scarcity, factors of production, opportunity cost curve (occ) or (ppc, ppf, tc) production possibility curve productn possibility frontier transformation curve. The OCC, PPC, PPF & TC explains the decisions made by householders, firms & the govt.
ian
opportunity cost also arises as a result of firm willing to produce a particular commodity but resources use in satisfying or producing such output is limited
Olusegun
wat ar those decisions? the most important is WHY nations economise tht is if they hav abundancy of factors of productn eg land, labour & entreprise? now since all of us have unlimited needs against few resourcs PPC, PPF, TC, OCC walks in to make wise allocatn of resources.
ian
how do those decisions made? eg by economic agents; a. Household (You) - if u have R10 & wish to buy a book & a pen & realise that both commodities seĺl at the same price which of the two (2) can u buy (necesity) and which one can u forgo (not all tht important).
ian
b. firms - they allocat mo resourcs to all thoz commoditz tht they think will yield mo profit. c. Govt - if the govt SA was to come in yo area which 1 would u think they can consider first tht can benefit the majority & the minority. So instead of building football stadium they construct a hospital.
ian
if the SA govt had enough resources they would have built both the stadium and the hospital but because of scarce in terms of resources they had to forgo the construction the stadium to build a hospital which is necessary for the majority to benefit.
ian
Opportunity cost well broken down..
Andres
opportunity cost means the lose of other alternatives when the alternative is chosen
saad Reply
is the benefits that you loose by not selecting a certain alternative.
EDWINY
individual wants maybe unlimited, but means to satisfy them are limited there one has to forgo some alternative in order to acquire other alternative and it must according priority, that is when scale of preference set in for individuals to make choice
Rhaiymornd
hello everyone
Aliyu
Next best alternative forgiven
Shoaib
demand is the amount of goods and services that consumer is willing and able to purchase at a particular prices over given period of time
Rhaiymornd Reply
yep
Abraham
what's demand?
labi Reply
What customers want the most...
Abraham
not only what customers wants, want is just mere desire but demand is backed by purchasing power, ability and willingness
Rhaiymornd
thanks
Abraham
What's opportunity cost?
Abraham
what are the differences between demand and supply
Zakariyah Reply
who is called lender of the last resort
Divyanshu Reply
Hi
Linda
hlw
Karishma
Central bank
Majeed
hy
Karishma
Hello
Majeed
hy
Karishma
How are you
Majeed
Am gud
Linda
fine
Karishma
Am gud
Linda
hello
Chandra
Well! what's going on
Majeed
r u study in economics
Karishma
anybody there?
Chandra
r u study in economics
Karishma
the central bank
Sessay
Has completed already
Majeed
hey
neha
yes
Abigail
Yesss
Majeed
ok
Karishma
hey
Doctor
yh
Abigail
more questions
Sessay
how ar you
Doctor
split the price effect into income effect and substitution effect
Karishma
fine and u
Abigail
Hi
Godwin
hi
Hey, I am new here. Hope, discussion on Economics will clear our concepts more.
yasir
yes
Abigail
do u speak hindi or english
Karishma
how to consumer equlibrium through ic
Karishma
consumer equilibrium demand equals supply
Kenneth
the consumer is in equilibrium when the indifference curve is tangential to the budget line. or when the BL and IC intersect
Sessay
reasons indifference curve slopes downwards?
Kenneth
fine Abby any good,
Doctor
ur lost
Doctor
hey. im new year. economics teacher how we can discuss some thing interesting.
EDWINY
which one
Doctor
what do u understand the concept of poverty cycle.
EDWINY
hey
Ebong
I'm New here
Ebong
hi
ian
just new here guy's and also an Economics fresher of Kogi State University Anyigba
nelson
wxup
Ayegba
who can tell the laboratory of economic?
Amara
, Dennis Weissman Associates, LLC Laboratory Economics is the monthly business newsletter that gets behind the headlines and press releases.
Ayegba
sooo teah me what an LLC
Emmanuel

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Source:  OpenStax, Principles of economics. OpenStax CNX. Sep 19, 2014 Download for free at http://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11613/1.11
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