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Using fiscal policy to address trade imbalances

If a nation is experiencing the inflow of foreign investment capital associated with a trade deficit because foreign investors are making long-term direct investments in firms, there may be no substantial reason for concern. After all, many low-income nations around the world would welcome direct investment by multinational firms that ties them more closely into the global networks of production and distribution of goods and services. In this case, the inflows of foreign investment capital and the trade deficit are attracted by the opportunities for a good rate of return on private sector investment in an economy.

However, governments should beware of a sustained pattern of high budget deficits and high trade deficits. The danger arises in particular when the inflow of foreign investment capital is not funding long-term physical capital investment by firms, but instead is short-term portfolio investment in government bonds. When inflows of foreign financial investment reach high levels, foreign financial investors will be on the alert for any reason to fear that the country’s exchange rate may decline or the government may be unable to repay what it has borrowed on time. Just as a few falling rocks can trigger an avalanche; a relatively small piece of bad news about an economy can trigger an enormous outflow of short-term financial capital.

Reducing a nation’s budget deficit will not always be a successful method of reducing its trade deficit, because other elements of the national saving and investment identity, like private saving or investment, may change instead. In those cases when the budget deficit is the main cause of the trade deficit, governments should take steps to reduce their budget deficits, lest they make their economy vulnerable to a rapid outflow of international financial capital that could bring a deep recession.

Financing higher education

Over the period between 1982 and 2012, the increases in the cost of a college education had far outpaced that of the income of the typical American family. According to the research done by the President Obama’s staff, the cost of education at a four-year public college increased by 257% compared to an increase in family incomes of only 16% over the prior 30 years. The ongoing debate over a balanced budget and proposed cutbacks accentuated the need to increase investment in human capital to grow the economy versus deepening the already significant debt levels of the U.S. government. In the summer of 2013, President Obama presented a plan to make college more affordable that included increasing Pell Grant awards and the number of recipients, caps on interest rates for student loans, and providing education tax credits. In addition, the plan includes an accountability method for institutions of higher education that focuses on completion rates and creates a College Scorecard. Whether or not all these initiatives come to fruition remains to be seen, but they are indicative of creative approaches that government can take to meet its obligation from both a public and fiscal policy perspective.

Key concepts and summary

The government need not balance its budget every year. However, a sustained pattern of large budget deficits over time risks causing several negative macroeconomic outcomes: a shift to the right in aggregate demand that causes an inflationary increase in the price level; crowding out private investment in physical capital in a way that slows down economic growth; and creating a dependence on inflows of international portfolio investment which can sometimes turn into outflows of foreign financial investment that can be injurious to a macroeconomy.

Problems

Sketch a diagram of how a budget deficit causes a trade deficit. ( Hint : Begin with what will happen to the exchange rate when foreigners demand more U.S. government debt.)

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Sketch a diagram of how sustained budget deficits cause low economic growth.

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Assume that you are employed by the government of Tanzania in 1964, a new nation recently independent from Britain. The Tanzanian parliament has decided that it will spend 10 million shillings on schools, roads, and healthcare for the year. You estimate that the net taxes for the year are eight million shillings. The difference will be financed by selling 10-year government bonds at 12% interest per year. The interest on outstanding bonds must be added to government expenditure each year. Assume that additional taxes are added to finance this increase in government expenditure so the gap between government spending is always two million. If the school, road, and healthcare budget are unchanged, compute the value of the accumulated debt in 10 years.

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References

The White House. “This is why it's time to make college more affordable.” Last modified August 20, 2013. http://www.whitehouse.gov/share/college-affordability.

Rubin, Robert E., Peter R. Orszag, and Allen Sinai. “Sustained Budget Deficits: Longer-Run U.S. Economic Performance and the Risk of Financial and Fiscal Disarray.” Last modified January 4, 2004. http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2004/1/05budgetdeficit%20orszag/20040105.pdf.

Questions & Answers

(1).Income is the main determined of macro economics. (a). true (b). false
Manisha Reply
yes
Anjali
tell me correct ans with examples!!
Manisha
yes
The
what yes yes?
Manisha
mam actually I want to say that income is not the main determinant of macro economics.
The
based on your knowledge about the production possibility frontier,demonstrate an assumption of supposed schedule of ppe for the production of rice and face masks by Bangladesh.use graphical representation as well
Ashraf Reply
hay
Ashraf
hlo
Karan
can you answer this
Ashraf
whats tradeoff
JUSTIN Reply
tradeoff is a balance achieved between two desirable but conflicting things
Faith
can I read in Hindi?
Rashmi Reply
don't know..
Azka
why not
Omid
Omid Amini....how?
Rashmi
sure thing
Faith
mention two necessities of estimation of national income in india ?
Krishna Reply
what means the supply
Abdourahamane Reply
hello
mosisa
hii
SHWETA
hi
Aleem
its means amount of product available right now.
Aleem
is everything important here🙂
Alizy
I mean anything*
Alizy
u can read it
Aleem
it's mean something needed or wanted
Alizy
where are from shweta
Aleem
where are you from shweta
Aleem
Hello
Anas
it may mean the stock available
DR
to make something needed or wanted available to someone
Faith
is someone who manufactures something
Faith
What is the cost-benefit analysis?
Hannah Reply
A cost benefit analysis is a process by which organizations can analyze decisions, systems or projects, or determine a value for intangibles. The model is built by identifying the benefits of an action as well as the associated costs and subtracting the costs from benefits.
sanga
thanks!
Hannah
Cost benefit analysis is a process used primarily by businesses that weighs the sum of the benefits, such as financial gain, of an action against the negatives, or costs, of that action.
ALIM
process of cost benefit analysis and decision making crieteria
Santosh
hello everyone
BtsARMY
hello every one,
Dereje
hello everyone
waqar
what is the opportunity cost?
SHWETA
The next best option forgone is call the Opportunity cost of selection one.
Oshadi
who is producer?
rishabh Reply
karan johar
Mohd
shut up mr.mohd
rishabh
it's serious question..
rishabh
shut up mr.mohd
rishabh
simple who produce good
Alizy
who is aconsumer?
Ritik Reply
who uses the commodity
Kanza
a consumer is one that buys good for consumption .
rishabh
Kanza consumers uses the commodity..
rishabh
why do we put tariff on import goods
Salam Reply
Maybe to give national enterprises better opportunities than foreign ones... or just to get more money to the national budget in any way possible. I suppose it allows also to control import and therefore its influence on national economy and other countries economy too.
Pawe
i think to control import or for development of his own industry
RAJPOOTCHANAL
what were the events during the great depression that made classical economy tenets ineffective
Alby Reply
please what is the answer for the following question; derive the expression for a two sector Keynesian model from sowotuom land economy and state all the two components in the expression.
Alby Reply
No idea
ahmad
meaning nature and scope of macroeconomics
Diksha Reply
meaning of macroeconomics
Diksha
meaning of macroeconomics
Diksha
meaning of macroeconomics
Diksha
Macroeconomics covers aggregate or in simple words overall economy of country or world while microeconomics was just concerned with individual economies
Hamza
Hope this helped you, you can search it more on Google there is a YouTube page by the name of jacob Clifford
Hamza
How aggregate demand and output gap are related explain in the light of keynesian cross diagram
Muhammad Reply
what are the jobs of an economist
Shadrach Reply
study and predict economic indicators. give a economic base for polictical decision
mike

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