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Recent evaluations and results

Recent evaluations have been mostly focused on evaluating the following:

  1. Repeatability of the procedure in terms of the variability associated with its possible tracks for each realization.
  2. Determining any additional gain (if any) in terms of returns as a function of the number of portfolios evaluated ( J ) at any given year.
  3. The existence of any indications between current year portfolios' medians and subsequent year (same portfolio) performance. Are there any associations and if so how weak or strong are these?
  4. Investigating a stable and plausible stopping rule and assessing how beneficial it might be to run the random search until this condition is met.

Several experiments were set up to determine if it would be worthwhile to inspect more randomly sought portfolios on a yearly basis as part of the overall procedure. A job simulating a total of 104 tracks (each consisting of J = 25 , 000 portfolios per year over a 43 year period, 1965 though 2008) was submitted to ADA and took approximately three days to complete. Several important observations can be made from the outcomes of these simulations (shown in Figures 3 and 4, below). We note that, here, we can exploit the independence regarding the portfolios evaluated to get 52 tracks of J = 50 , 000 portfolios each by combining pairs of J = 25 , 000 tracks and selecting the maximum of the pair (simply the maximum of a longer execution). Essentially this gives us information regarding what would have happened (in terms of the performance of the strategy should we have run it for twice as long). Analogously, tracks for J = 100 , 000 and J = 200 , 000 portfolios were constructed. Finally, some overall discussion of the results is given after the figures.

Procedure Repeatability and Number of Portfolios Sampled Simulation (Left: J = 25 , 000 tracks, Right: J = 50 , 000 tracks)
Procedure Repeatability and Number of Portfolios Sampled Simulation (Left: J = 100 , 000 tracks, Right: J = 200 , 000 tracks)

The total portfolio value was evaluated at the end of both years 2006 and 2008 and contrasted to both market performance (blue track) and the performance of a single track of a whopping J = 2 , 600 , 000 portfolios considered yearly (green track). As expected the variability of the procedure compounds as a function of time, and by chance we might under-perform the market. However, more often than not the procedure out-performed the market and by a quite reasonable amount. The proportion of portfolio-tracks simulated that were over an equally-weighted alternative at the end of 2006 was over 80% (for the cases where J = 25 , 000 and J = 50 , 000 ) and over 90% (for the cases where we assessed more randomly sought portfolios, i.e. J = 100 , 000 , and J = 200 , 000 ). Also, there is weak evidence suggesting that, although running as many as J = 2 , 600 , 000 portfolios might at times outperform the market, this approach is generally not consistently higher on-average than considering tracks consisting of less yearly-evaluated portfolios.

Another rather interesting observation is made through the scatter-grams produced (see Figure 5, below) assessing the correlation between current year portfolio median and (same portfolio) next year performance contrasted to the performance of the S&P 500 index. The number of portfolios evaluated for this purpose was 2 , 000 , 000 and the those that are highlighted as producing the maximum of the medians represent ( < 0 . 1 % , i.e. < 2 , 000 ). The main purpose of this effort was to assess any associations between the current year medians as a forward-looking measure of portfolio performance (as we intend to pick the maximum and by chance we can pick portfolios of performance similar to those in the top 0.999 percentile). As expected the associations are weak, though not extremely weak (correlations are 0 . 209 for the first case and - 0 . 182 for the second), however can be noticed and depend highly of the year evaluated.

Questions & Answers

anyone know any internet site where one can find nanotechnology papers?
Damian Reply
research.net
kanaga
Introduction about quantum dots in nanotechnology
Praveena Reply
what does nano mean?
Anassong Reply
nano basically means 10^(-9). nanometer is a unit to measure length.
Bharti
do you think it's worthwhile in the long term to study the effects and possibilities of nanotechnology on viral treatment?
Damian Reply
absolutely yes
Daniel
how to know photocatalytic properties of tio2 nanoparticles...what to do now
Akash Reply
it is a goid question and i want to know the answer as well
Maciej
characteristics of micro business
Abigail
for teaching engĺish at school how nano technology help us
Anassong
Do somebody tell me a best nano engineering book for beginners?
s. Reply
there is no specific books for beginners but there is book called principle of nanotechnology
NANO
what is fullerene does it is used to make bukky balls
Devang Reply
are you nano engineer ?
s.
fullerene is a bucky ball aka Carbon 60 molecule. It was name by the architect Fuller. He design the geodesic dome. it resembles a soccer ball.
Tarell
what is the actual application of fullerenes nowadays?
Damian
That is a great question Damian. best way to answer that question is to Google it. there are hundreds of applications for buck minister fullerenes, from medical to aerospace. you can also find plenty of research papers that will give you great detail on the potential applications of fullerenes.
Tarell
what is the Synthesis, properties,and applications of carbon nano chemistry
Abhijith Reply
Mostly, they use nano carbon for electronics and for materials to be strengthened.
Virgil
is Bucky paper clear?
CYNTHIA
carbon nanotubes has various application in fuel cells membrane, current research on cancer drug,and in electronics MEMS and NEMS etc
NANO
so some one know about replacing silicon atom with phosphorous in semiconductors device?
s. Reply
Yeah, it is a pain to say the least. You basically have to heat the substarte up to around 1000 degrees celcius then pass phosphene gas over top of it, which is explosive and toxic by the way, under very low pressure.
Harper
Do you know which machine is used to that process?
s.
how to fabricate graphene ink ?
SUYASH Reply
for screen printed electrodes ?
SUYASH
What is lattice structure?
s. Reply
of graphene you mean?
Ebrahim
or in general
Ebrahim
in general
s.
Graphene has a hexagonal structure
tahir
On having this app for quite a bit time, Haven't realised there's a chat room in it.
Cied
what is biological synthesis of nanoparticles
Sanket Reply
what's the easiest and fastest way to the synthesize AgNP?
Damian Reply
China
Cied
types of nano material
abeetha Reply
I start with an easy one. carbon nanotubes woven into a long filament like a string
Porter
many many of nanotubes
Porter
what is the k.e before it land
Yasmin
what is the function of carbon nanotubes?
Cesar
I'm interested in nanotube
Uday
what is nanomaterials​ and their applications of sensors.
Ramkumar Reply
how did you get the value of 2000N.What calculations are needed to arrive at it
Smarajit Reply
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Source:  OpenStax, The art of the pfug. OpenStax CNX. Jun 05, 2013 Download for free at http://cnx.org/content/col10523/1.34
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