On the eschatology of the human condition  (Page 2/7)

Growth of the energy system

The recent historic exponential growth of civilization is more apparent to us all in other ways. To consider a timely example: although the sources of energy used in the United States have changed dramatically since 1800, the growth of annual inputs to the energy system of this country has deviated but little from its exponential trend in the intervening 170 years. There was a slight relative excess from 1900 until the Great Depression in 1929 and a subsequent defect until the end of World War II, but the deviations from the exponential trend displayed in [link] are small when compared with the enormous social dislocations with which they were associated, and they seem not to have any long term effect on the underlying growth pattern.

According to [link] , inputs to the energy system of the United States have been doubling every 26 years; they "should", if growth were to continue unchecked, double again between the present time (1974) and the year 2000. Thus, could we now provide sufficient energy merely to maintain present consumption levels, by the year 2000 we would find that we would be providing for but one-half our then "normal" requirements, based upon the hypothesis that the historic exponential growth trend in energy utilization reflects a natural and appropriate feature of civilization. Upon this hypothesis it follows that most Americans now alive will live to see the day when society will be able to assuage but half their "natural" craving for energy. On this scale, major oil discoveries such as the Alaskan North Slope field and the North Sea deposits diminish in stature: total North Slope recovery is anticipated to be equivalent to 3 years con­sumption for the United States at present usage rates. Our ability to provide energy in amounts that will continue to double every 26 years clearly demands major technological innovations and extensive capital investment. Assimilation of the byproducts of these efforts, social as well as substantial, may require still greater efforts and ingenuity.

Population growth

It is sometimes thought that population growth is the essential driving force behind the general exponential growth of other components of society. That this is not so is readily seen by comparison of the rates of growth of United States population and of the inputs to the energy system of the United States. Recent population growth rates correspond to a doubling period of about 45 years compared with the 26 year doubling period for energy input growth; this simply means that per capita energy inputs have been growing. Nevertheless, population growth is an important component in the general scheme of expansion exhibited by our civilization, and one which affects the life style of individuals in a relatively direct way, for within an adult lifetime of 50 years an American can expect to see the population double (if trends continue). The effect would be a consequent major density increase in urban living areas, increased strains on commodity delivery and other communication systems, increased inequalities in the distri­bution of wealth, larger average community size, and an increasingly impersonal and depersonalized social life outside the spheres of friendship and work role. Contrast this situation with the life of the typical western European in the Middle Ages, say 700-1100: population growth was negligible during this period; personal mobility was low; and personal associations and interactions remained relatively stable throughout most people's lifespan.