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Regressors

Percentage change in per capita income

Reflects an overall change in well-being since the last election. As the Percentage Change in Per Capita Income decreases, the incumbent becomes more unelectable.

Unemployment

Tells how many people are unable to find work as a percentage of the workforce who cannot find find work. As unemployment increases, the incumbent's chance of re-election decreases.

Control of congress

A variable reflecting whether the incumbent's party controls Congress or not. 1 if the incumbent party controls both the house and the senate, 1/2 if the incumbent's party controls only one chamber, 0 if the incumbent's party controls neither.

Incumbent approval rating

The incumbent's approval from the last month in June. As this number decreases, the incumbent becomes more unelectable.

Incumbent vote in the past three elections

A variable showing how people voted in the past for the incumbent. If the previous incumbent vote is high, chances are people will not go drastically away from that result.

Assumptions

  • Percentage Change in Per Capita Income : In 2008 CPI Adjusted dollars [link] , 2012 figures assumes same growth rate as 2009-2010
  • Unemployment : 1992-2008 figures are averages for the year, 2012 figures are the unemployment data for May

Results

2008

We used both the regression model on its own as well as the partially filled-in Markov model to predict the 2008 election using data from 2004 and earlier. The results are presented in Table 1 and Figure 3.

Prediction Results for 2008 (% Democratic vote)
State Prediction Average Prediction Error (magnitude)
Linear Regression 52.18% 2.08%
Markov Random Field 47% 6.84%
Actual Result 54.57% -
Histogram of Errors in Predictions for 2008

2012

In 2012, we predict Mitt Romney to win Colorado with about 60% of the vote. Our regression model predicts 60.36% while our Markov model predicts 60.65%. In figure 4, we present the county-by-county predictions.

Our Predictions for 2012

Turnout assumption

In order to calculate the statewide prediction based on the individual county predictions, we had to estimate how many people would vote in each county in 2012. The assumption we made was that the percentage of Colorado voters in each county would remain constant.

Conclusions/further research

Based off the results from 2008, the Markov Random Field technique does not seem to perform as well as the regression by itself. This could be due to a lack of data (again, we only had 13 observations to learn the model from), or it could be due to inconsistencies in neighboring counties' relationships with one another. If the latter is true, then our hypothesis was incorrect. That is, the relationships between adjacent counties are not consistent enough to use for election predictions. To answer this question for certain would require many more observations, probably from all types of elections for many years. This is one potential area for future research. Despite the uncertainty regarding our Markov model, we can seemingly conclude success with our regression model. It predicted the correct winner in both 2008 (trained on data from 1992-2004) and 2004 (not shown here, trained on data from 1992-2000). Of course, we used a small set of regressors and there is much room for further research in this area, as well.

Questions & Answers

I only see partial conversation and what's the question here!
Crow Reply
what about nanotechnology for water purification
RAW Reply
please someone correct me if I'm wrong but I think one can use nanoparticles, specially silver nanoparticles for water treatment.
Damian
what is the stm
Brian Reply
is there industrial application of fullrenes. What is the method to prepare fullrene on large scale.?
Rafiq
industrial application...? mmm I think on the medical side as drug carrier, but you should go deeper on your research, I may be wrong
Damian
How we are making nano material?
LITNING Reply
what is a peer
LITNING Reply
What is meant by 'nano scale'?
LITNING Reply
What is STMs full form?
LITNING
scanning tunneling microscope
Sahil
how nano science is used for hydrophobicity
Santosh
Do u think that Graphene and Fullrene fiber can be used to make Air Plane body structure the lightest and strongest. Rafiq
Rafiq
what is differents between GO and RGO?
Mahi
what is simplest way to understand the applications of nano robots used to detect the cancer affected cell of human body.? How this robot is carried to required site of body cell.? what will be the carrier material and how can be detected that correct delivery of drug is done Rafiq
Rafiq
what is Nano technology ?
Bob Reply
write examples of Nano molecule?
Bob
The nanotechnology is as new science, to scale nanometric
brayan
nanotechnology is the study, desing, synthesis, manipulation and application of materials and functional systems through control of matter at nanoscale
Damian
Is there any normative that regulates the use of silver nanoparticles?
Damian Reply
what king of growth are you checking .?
Renato
What fields keep nano created devices from performing or assimulating ? Magnetic fields ? Are do they assimilate ?
Stoney Reply
why we need to study biomolecules, molecular biology in nanotechnology?
Adin Reply
?
Kyle
yes I'm doing my masters in nanotechnology, we are being studying all these domains as well..
Adin
why?
Adin
what school?
Kyle
biomolecules are e building blocks of every organics and inorganic materials.
Joe
anyone know any internet site where one can find nanotechnology papers?
Damian Reply
research.net
kanaga
sciencedirect big data base
Ernesto
Introduction about quantum dots in nanotechnology
Praveena Reply
what does nano mean?
Anassong Reply
nano basically means 10^(-9). nanometer is a unit to measure length.
Bharti
do you think it's worthwhile in the long term to study the effects and possibilities of nanotechnology on viral treatment?
Damian Reply
absolutely yes
Daniel
how to know photocatalytic properties of tio2 nanoparticles...what to do now
Akash Reply
it is a goid question and i want to know the answer as well
Maciej
characteristics of micro business
Abigail
for teaching engĺish at school how nano technology help us
Anassong
How can I make nanorobot?
Lily
how did you get the value of 2000N.What calculations are needed to arrive at it
Smarajit Reply
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Source:  OpenStax, The art of the pfug. OpenStax CNX. Jun 05, 2013 Download for free at http://cnx.org/content/col10523/1.34
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