0.15 Natural capital: energy  (Page 13/15)

Finding energy: deepwater deposits

Another potential major source of oil and gas for emerging nations are offshore deposits lying under very deep water. These deposits lie under water 10,000 feet deep or more, plus another 10,000 feet under the sea bed. Right to these endowments belong to Brazil, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Mozambique, Mexico and others.

These deepwater deposits are especially important for countries such as Mexico. Prospective reserves in deepwater and shale total 115 bbls of oil equivalent. The largest existing Mexican oil fields, such as the giant Cantarell Field, discovered in 1976 has been depleting rapidly since 1995. As a result, total Mexican oil output has decreased by 1 million bbls per day, at a time when Mexico has sizeable subsidies on domestic use of fossil fuels, and declining volumes of exports from oil.

Three features of these deepwater assets will require emerging nations to collaborate with foreign oil companies to reap the benefits. First, exploration and development in these locations will be quite costly: upwards of $1 billion to $3 billion per project. By 2014, deepwater and ultra deepwater hydrocarbon projects totaled $66 billion worldwide. Second, the life cycle for such projects extends over 15 to 25-30 years. Third, exploration costs will be heavy, and will be concentrated within the first 5-7 years of any deepwater project well before any sales of gas or oil. This means that initial cash flows from the undertakings will be negative, perhaps for as long as a decade. Fourth, significant price risks are involved.

The large private multinational oil companies are much better equipped to deal with market risk than are National Oil Companies in developing nations. The former are larger and stronger financially. The private multinations such as Chevron and Exxon take a very long-term view of prices because their investments, especially in deepwater deposit exploration and development, last not for years, but decades. The abrupt 50% fall in crude oil and gas prices in the latter half of 2014 has not materially affected the deepwater investment plans of the companies. Because these companies cannot be certain what will be the price of oil or gas when a major project finally comes on line, the firms build into their business models fluctuating oil prices. Exxon’s business plan tests its investments across a broad range of oil prices, from as low as $40/bbl to as high as $120. (Statement of Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson, January 11, 2015).

Other than perhaps Brazil, none of the emerging nations with rights to deepwater deposits will have sufficient capital to mount ambitious deepwater projects. For example, in deep waters in the Gulf of Mexico belonging to the U.S., over 1,600 wells have been drilled. But on the Mexican-owned part of the Gulf, only 50 wells have been drilled. And none of these countries, Brazil included, possess all of the technology required to successfully carry out the projects.

The life cycle of a deepwater deposit can be illustrated as in Figure 15-9 .