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Exchange rate market for mexican peso reacts to expectations about future exchange rates

The graph shows how supply and demand would change if the exchange rate for pesos was predicted to strengthen.
An announcement that the peso exchange rate is likely to strengthen in the future will lead to greater demand for the peso in the present from investors who wish to benefit from the appreciation. Similarly, it will make investors less likely to supply pesos to the foreign exchange market. Both the shift of demand to the right and the shift of supply to the left cause an immediate appreciation in the exchange rate.

[link] also illustrates some peculiar traits of supply and demand diagrams in the foreign exchange market. In contrast to all the other cases of supply and demand you have considered, in the foreign exchange market    , supply and demand typically both move at the same time. Groups of participants in the foreign exchange market like firms and investors include some who are buyers and some who are sellers. An expectation of a future shift in the exchange rate affects both buyers and sellers—that is, it affects both demand and supply for a currency.

The shifts in demand and supply curves both cause the exchange rate to shift in the same direction; in this example, they both make the peso exchange rate stronger. However, the shifts in demand and supply work in opposing directions on the quantity traded. In this example, the rising demand for pesos is causing the quantity to rise while the falling supply of pesos is causing quantity to fall. In this specific example, the result is a higher quantity. But in other cases, the result could be that quantity remains unchanged or declines.

This example also helps to explain why exchange rates often move quite substantially in a short period of a few weeks or months. When investors expect a country’s currency to strengthen in the future, they buy the currency and cause it to appreciate immediately. The appreciation of the currency can lead other investors to believe that future appreciation is likely—and thus lead to even further appreciation. Similarly, a fear that a currency might weaken quickly leads to an actual weakening of the currency, which often reinforces the belief that the currency is going to weaken further. Thus, beliefs about the future path of exchange rates can be self-reinforcing, at least for a time, and a large share of the trading in foreign exchange markets involves dealers trying to outguess each other on what direction exchange rates will move next.

Differences across countries in rates of return

The motivation for investment, whether domestic or foreign, is to earn a return. If rates of return in a country look relatively high, then that country will tend to attract funds from abroad. Conversely, if rates of return in a country look relatively low, then funds will tend to flee to other economies. Changes in the expected rate of return will shift demand and supply for a currency. For example, imagine that interest rates rise in the United States as compared with Mexico. Thus, financial investments in the United States promise a higher return than they previously did. As a result, more investors will demand U.S. dollars so that they can buy interest-bearing assets and fewer investors will be willing to supply U.S. dollars to foreign exchange markets. Demand for the U.S. dollar will shift to the right, from D 0 to D 1 , and supply will shift to the left, from S 0 to S 1 , as shown in [link] . The new equilibrium (E 1 ), will occur at an exchange rate of nine pesos/dollar and the same quantity of $8.5 billion. Thus, a higher interest rate or rate of return relative to other countries leads a nation’s currency to appreciate or strengthen, and a lower interest rate relative to other countries leads a nation’s currency to depreciate or weaken. Since a nation’s central bank can use monetary policy to affect its interest rates, a central bank can also cause changes in exchange rates—a connection that will be discussed in more detail later in this chapter.

Questions & Answers

what is implicit cost
fuseini Reply
Yeah
MOHAMED
any cost that has already occurred but not necessarily shown or reported as a separate expense.
President
The links don't seem to be working
Scorch Reply
what is taxonomy
wise Reply
how to interprets elasticity
Joseph Reply
what is demand curve
Joseph
It is the graphical representation of quantity demand of a commodity?
Kofi
it is the graphical representation of price and quantity demanded of a commodity
Obaa
what is the difference between positive economics and normative economics.
pauline Reply
It said that positive economics studies the facts, but normative one focus on ought to be.
Mohammad
in another words normative economics focuses on what the fair situation is.
Mohammad
positive economics: wages are 10$ per hour. normative economics: wages should be 25$ per hour.
Mohammad
what is choice
Hamis Reply
what is indifference curve
Misba Reply
It is an alternative combination of consumption of two goods which gives equal level of satisfaction.
Shujjat
good morning guys.. I am Lawrence from Nigeria.. trust am welcome here..
Lawrence Reply
Lovely morning bro... Welcome 💕
Kosiso
ur most welcome lawrence
Kun
Welcome back to another session,happy Friday morning
Dumbuya
good morning guys I'm Oumar Kromah from Côte d'ivoire am I welcome here
Oumar
lovely morning bro welcome
Malak
i dont understand on economics
Noor
i m from pakistan
Noor
mashallah
Tanveer
I am from Nepal
OP
i m Pakistan
Malak
Am Gabriel from Ghana
Kwame
hmmm
Noor
are you ecnomist?
Noor
Am Eben Paak from Ghana
Eben
Okay.. Nice meeting us
Kosiso
l am James Borbor from Liberia
jackie
I am a researcher
jackie
you all are ecnomost
Noor
ohh nice
Noor
re search on economy
Noor
what is demand
Milton Reply
yes
Malak
Link seems to not work
Jayden Reply
what is an opportunity cost?
Azotikemah Reply
next best alternative cost...
suresh
Meaning of Economics
Kamara Reply
It can be define as the practical science that studies human relationship between End's and scare means which have alternative uses in all aspect of human life
Kosiso
what's the meaning of pure and impure
Levinel
Pure is free from immoral behavior or quality,Impure not clean dirty,filthy containing something that is in pure
Dumbuya
what is economics
Malak Reply
Economics is a social science which deals with humans behavior
Dumbuya
Explain two reasons why trade union membership may decline in a country
Pop Reply
analyse the factors that influence the strength of a trade union.
Pop
discuss whether or not trade unions benefit workers
Pop
nice questions guys
Kun
Firstly, to what extent is it willing to backup an employee or worker Secondly , is it effective in sustaining a valid point
Scorch
what is demand
ALALE Reply
what's the difference between elastic and inelastic
ALALE
The desire to purchase goods and services at a particular price
Dumbuya
Elastic: demand is price sensitive. Inelastic: demand is not price sensitive.
Ernest

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Source:  OpenStax, Principles of economics. OpenStax CNX. Sep 19, 2014 Download for free at http://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11613/1.11
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